Real Madrid
vs
Alaves
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Real Madrid 2–0 Alaves
The model makes it 76% Real Madrid, 16% draw, 8% Alaves — fair odds of 1.32, 6.25 and 12.50.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.83, Alaves 0.66.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Real Madrid are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Real Madrid's rating is built from 50 La Liga matches and Alaves's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Real Madrid are 2nd on 30 points from 12 games; Alaves are 12th on 13 points from 12 games — La Liga.
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Valencia.
- Alaves have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Sevilla.
- Last 6 meetings: Real Madrid 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 April 2026, ended Real Madrid 2–1 Alaves.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Real Madrid vs Alaves
Has the model earned this number?
Real Madrid at 76%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Real Madrid vs Alaves
Real Madrid
La Liga
- W3-0away to Valencia7 November 2026
- W3-0away to Racing Santander1 November 2026
- W2-1away to Barcelona25 October 2026
- W4-1Sevilla18 October 2026
- W1-0Villarreal10 October 2026
Alaves
La Liga
- D0-0away to Sevilla6 November 2026
- L1-6away to Barcelona31 October 2026
- D1-1Malaga23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Celta Vigo18 October 2026
- L1-2Atletico Madrid10 October 2026
What these results say
- Real Madrid won every one of these 5 matches.
- Real Madrid scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Real Madrid had three goals or more.
- Alaves did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Alaves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alaves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 30 |
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Real Madrid
Chance to win the league · 44% today
Alaves
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Real Madrid vs Alaves
- 21 April 2026Real Madrid 2–1 AlavesLa Liga
- 14 December 2025Alaves 1–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 13 April 2025Alaves 0–1 Real MadridLa Liga
- 24 September 2024Real Madrid 3–2 AlavesLa Liga
- 14 May 2024Real Madrid 5–0 AlavesLa Liga
- 21 December 2023Alaves 0–1 Real MadridLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Madrid and Alaves
Real Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Kylian Mbappé132
- J. Bellingham43
Alaves
GoalsAssists
- L. Boyé50
- M. Díaz44
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Madrid a 43.5% chance of the title and Alaves 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Madrid the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.83 expected goals for Real Madrid against 0.66 for Alaves. Real Madrid's attack/defence rating is 1.67/0.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.05 for Alaves.
How the model reaches 76% for Real Madrid to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Real Madrid to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Real Madrid's ratings add 17 points and Alaves's ratings add 16 points, which lands on the published 76%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Real Madrid's ratings60%+17
- Alaves's ratings76%+16
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Real Madrid at home · Alaves away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Real MadridAlaves
Real Madrid are 2nd after 12 La Liga matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Alaves are 12th after 12 (between 1st and 10th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Real Madrid 12, Alaves 12.
Real Madrid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Alaves have let in 3 there.
Alaves score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Real Madrid have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Real Madrid
- at Real Sociedad2 Dec · La Ligawin 55%
- at Athletic Club6 Dec · La Ligawin 54%
- at Arsenal9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 29%
Alaves
- vs Espanyol6 Dec · La Ligawin 41%
- at Levante13 Dec · La Ligawin 28%
- vs Elche20 Dec · La Ligawin 42%
- at Real Betis3 Jan · La Ligawin 17%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.