Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Santos Laguna 1-0 CF Pachuca.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Santos Laguna, 29% draw, 41% CF Pachuca — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
CF Pachuca at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca
Line-ups
- 1C. AcevedoG
- 18F. PardoD
- 25Felipe SánchezD
- 14E. OronaD
- 3M. CuevasM
- 23F. CáseresM
- 21Fran VillalbaM
- 7D. GonzálezM
- 77K. PalaciosF
- 20E. LozanoF
- 10E. BullaudeF
- 26R. SordoM
- 17E. EcheverrÃaD
- 19E. AguirreF
- 4J. AbellaD
- 193Luis GómezM
- 6J. GüémezM
- 33H. HolguínG
- 29Tahiel Adrián Jiménez SánchezF
- 5A. LópezM
- 25C. MorenoG
- 12S. SantosD
- 4Eduardo BauermannD
- 2S. BarretoD
- 15F. VenegasD
- 30S. RodríguezM
- 16C. RiveraM
- 21N. VallejoM
- 26Alán Ernesto Bautista GutiérrezM
- 6M. IsaísM
- 23S. RondónF
- 32P. BudibD
- 206Thomas ContrerasM
- 31J. EulogioG
- 211C. HernandezF
- 11O. IdrissiF
- 7R. PizarroM
- 195E. SotoD
- 14C. SánchezD
- 187G. ÃlvarezF
Form going into Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca
Santos Laguna
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Toluca21 September 2026
- W2-1FC Juarez14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cruz Azul6 September 2026
- D0-0Tigres UANL30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Puebla23 August 2026
CF Pachuca
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Club Tijuana21 September 2026
- W3-0away to Atlante FC12 September 2026
- W2-0away to FC Juarez5 September 2026
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico San Luis23 August 2026
What these results say
- Santos Laguna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CF Pachuca went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CF Pachuca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 25 |
| 9 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca
- 12 April 2026CF Pachuca 4–2 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 9 November 2025Santos Laguna 1–0 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 21 January 2025CF Pachuca 2–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 23 October 2024Santos Laguna 1–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 21 April 2024Santos Laguna 0–2 CF PachucaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Santos Laguna and CF Pachuca
Santos Laguna
GoalsAssists
- Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez60
CF Pachuca
GoalsAssists
- S. Rondón162
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santos Laguna beat CF Pachuca 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for CF Pachuca at 41% and given a win for Santos Laguna 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Francisco Villalba (penalty) 45+3' for Santos Laguna.
How the call on Santos Laguna v CF Pachuca has moved
First published on 13 Sep at 36% / 31% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 30% / 29% / 41%: the biggest move is CF Pachuca's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- Santos Laguna win30%▼ −6
- Draw29%▼ −2
- CF Pachuca win41%▲ +8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.