11 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Shelbourne vs Derry City Premier Division prediction & result

Tolka Park, Dublin
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Shelbourne 0-1 Derry City.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Shelbourne, 30% draw, 32% Derry City — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Shelbourne at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Shelbourne4%Draw93%Derry City3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Odhran Casey
27'
Jonathan Lunney
50'
🔁Alistair Cooteout: Sean Moore
57'
🔁Ademipo Odubekoout: Sean Boyd
57'
🔁Jonathan Lunneyout: Jack Henry-Francis
58'
59'
🔁Darragh Burnsout: James Clarke
59'
🔁Tyler·Smithout: Liam Boyce
65'
Adam O'Reilly
69'
Liam Boyce
72'
🔁Ellis Chapmanout: Kévin Santos
🔁Evan Caffreyout: Rodrigo Costa Freitas
76'
83'
nick twisk
🔁Milan Bernhard Mbengout: Sean Gannon
83'
90+3'
⚽Michael Duffyassist: James Clarke

Match stats — Shelbourne vs Derry City

54%Possession46%
11Shots18
2On target6
6Corners5

Line-ups

Shelbourne 4-2-3-1
  • 19E. BeachG
  • 25M. MbengD
  • 16O. CaseyD
  • 4K. LedwidgeD
  • 18James Barry NorrisD
  • 6J. LunneyM
  • 23K. McInroyM
  • 27E. CaffreyM
  • 14A. CooteM
  • 17D. KellyM
  • 11M. OdubekoF
Substitutes
  • 55James RocheD
  • 2S. GannonD
  • 20R. FreitasF
  • 9S. BoydF
  • 21Jack Henry-FrancisM
  • 36W. JarvisM
  • 13M. JohnsonG
  • 22S. MooreD
  • 44Daniel RingF
Coach: J. Russell
Derry City 4-5-1
  • 13Tom NorcottG
  • 23C. DummiganD
  • 4J. StottD
  • 3Patrick McCleanD
  • 8A. O'ReillyM
  • 17N. TwiskM
  • 14E. ChapmanM
  • 19B. FlemingM
  • 12D. BurnsF
  • 29T. SmithF
  • 7M. DuffyF
Substitutes
  • 22C. BarrD
  • 27L. BoyceF
  • 15J. ClarkeM
  • 25Christy GroganD
  • 24Brooklyn Lyons-FosterD
  • 1B. MaherG
  • 21Kévin SantosM
  • 28J. OlayinkaM
  • 11G. WhyteM
Coach: Mark Connolly

Form going into Shelbourne vs Derry City

Shelbourne

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Shamrock Rovers4 September 2026
  • D2-2Ajax13 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Ajax6 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Kalju Nomme30 July 2026
  • W5-2Kalju Nomme23 July 2026

Derry City

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3Shamrock Rovers30 August 2026
  • L0-1HNK Rijeka30 July 2026
  • L0-1away to HNK Rijeka23 July 2026

What these results say

  • Shelbourne failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Shelbourne scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Shelbourne conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Shelbourne361213115250+249
5Derry City361115105047+348

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Shelbourne and Derry City

Shelbourne

GoalsAssists

  • H. Wood85
  • D. Kelly84
  • J. Martin82

Derry City

GoalsAssists

  • M. Duffy115
  • J. Clarke73

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Derry City won 1–0 at Shelbourne. The model had leaned towards a win for Shelbourne at 38% and given a win for Derry City 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Michael Duffy 90+3' for Derry City.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.