SpVgg Greuther Fürth
vs
Arminia Bielefeld
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–2 Arminia Bielefeld
The model makes it 34% SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 26% draw, 40% Arminia Bielefeld — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.52, Arminia Bielefeld 1.67.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Arminia Bielefeld: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's rating is built from 47 2. Bundesliga matches and Arminia Bielefeld's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 715 matches.
Key facts
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth are 10th on 12 points from 11 games; Arminia Bielefeld are 6th on 17 points from 11 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Dynamo Dresden.
- Arminia Bielefeld have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Holstein Kiel.
- Last 6 meetings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 20 February 2026, ended SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld
Has the model earned this number?
Arminia Bielefeld at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2. Bundesliga
- L0-3away to Dynamo Dresden6 November 2026
- W1-0Holstein Kiel1 November 2026
- L0-3away to VfL Osnabrück25 October 2026
- W2-0Eintracht Braunschweig17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hertha BSC11 October 2026
Arminia Bielefeld
2. Bundesliga
- W2-1away to Holstein Kiel7 November 2026
- W3-1Eintracht Braunschweig30 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hertha BSC24 October 2026
- W2-1VfL Osnabrück18 October 2026
- W1-0away to VfL Bochum11 October 2026
What these results say
- Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arminia Bielefeld scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arminia Bielefeld conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 12 |
| 6 | Arminia Bielefeld | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 15% today
Arminia Bielefeld
Chance to finish in the top two · 5% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld
- 20 February 2026SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 19 September 2025Arminia Bielefeld 1–3 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 5 May 2023Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 28 October 2022SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 16 January 2022Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 SpVgg Greuther FürthBundesliga
- 21 August 2021SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–1 Arminia BielefeldBundesliga
Leading scorers: SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
GoalsAssists
- F. Klaus71
Arminia Bielefeld
GoalsAssists
- J. Grodowski72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 0% chance of the title and Arminia Bielefeld 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arminia Bielefeld the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.67 for Arminia Bielefeld. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.41 for Arminia Bielefeld.
How the model reaches 40% for Arminia Bielefeld to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Arminia Bielefeld to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's ratings add 4 points and Arminia Bielefeld's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth's ratings35%+4
- Arminia Bielefeld's ratings40%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home · Arminia Bielefeld away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
SpVgg Greuther FürthArminia Bielefeld
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are 10th after 11 2. Bundesliga matches (between 5th and 15th so far); Arminia Bielefeld are 6th after 11 (between 5th and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 11, Arminia Bielefeld 11.
Arminia Bielefeld score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); SpVgg Greuther Fürth have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- at 1. FC Kaiserslautern5 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 23%
- vs VfL Wolfsburg13 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 28%
- at SV Darmstadt 9820 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 33%
- vs Karlsruher SC15 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 46%
Arminia Bielefeld
- vs Dynamo Dresden4 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 48%
- vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern11 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
- at VfL Wolfsburg19 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 25%
- vs Hannover 9615 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 47%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.