2. Bundesliga predictions & fixtures

Friday 20 November — 2 matches

17:30 UTC SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim — model 36% / 26% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 3.85 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach
17:30 UTC Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg — model 39% / 24% / 37%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 4.17 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach

Saturday 21 November — 4 matches

12:00 UTC VfL Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel — model 57% / 23% / 20%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.75 · 4.35 · 5.00. Edge: VfL Wolfsburg
12:00 UTC Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth — model 47% / 26% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 3.85 · 3.70. Evenly matched
12:00 UTC 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig — model 59% / 22% / 19%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.69 · 4.55 · 5.26. Edge: 1. FC Nürnberg
19:30 UTC FC St. Pauli vs VfL Bochum — model 39% / 29% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.45 · 3.13. Evenly matched

Sunday 22 November — 3 matches

12:30 UTC 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Dynamo Dresden — model 46% / 28% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.17 · 3.57 · 3.85. Evenly matched
12:30 UTC Karlsruher SC vs VfL Osnabrück — model 39% / 25% / 36%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 4.00 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
12:30 UTC Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC — model 29% / 25% / 46%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.45 · 4.00 · 2.17. Edge: Hertha BSC

Friday 27 November — 2 matches

17:30 UTC VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 — model 48% / 27% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.08 · 3.70 · 4.00. Edge: VfL Bochum
17:30 UTC 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg — model 33% / 24% / 43%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.03 · 4.17 · 2.33. Edge: 1. FC Nürnberg

Saturday 28 November — 4 matches

12:00 UTC Hertha BSC vs Karlsruher SC — model 67% / 18% / 15%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.49 · 5.56 · 6.67. One-sided: Hertha BSC
12:00 UTC Dynamo Dresden vs FC St. Pauli — model 46% / 26% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 3.85 · 3.57. Evenly matched
12:00 UTC Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — model 33% / 32% / 35%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.13 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
19:30 UTC VfL Osnabrück vs Hannover 96 — model 40% / 27% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.50 · 3.70 · 3.03. Evenly matched

Sunday 29 November — 3 matches

12:30 UTC SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld — model 34% / 26% / 40%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.85 · 2.50. Edge: Arminia Bielefeld
12:30 UTC 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus — model 57% / 21% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.75 · 4.76 · 4.55. Edge: 1. FC Magdeburg
12:30 UTC Eintracht Braunschweig vs VfL Wolfsburg — model 28% / 24% / 48%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.57 · 4.17 · 2.08. Edge: VfL Wolfsburg

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 5 of 9 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 99 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 47% of results.

Eintracht Braunschweig 0–0 Energie Cottbus — the model said 41% / 24% / 35%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Dynamo Dresden 3–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — the model said 44% / 25% / 31%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Holstein Kiel 1–2 Arminia Bielefeld — the model said 38% / 28% / 34%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
1. FC Nürnberg 2–0 SV Darmstadt 98 — the model said 62% / 21% / 17%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
VfL Osnabrück 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern — the model said 36% / 30% / 34%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Hertha BSC 2–1 VfL Wolfsburg — the model said 46% / 23% / 31%, most likely 2-1: exact scoreline.
VfL Bochum 3–2 Karlsruher SC — the model said 49% / 25% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
1. FC Heidenheim 2–2 Hannover 96 — the model said 44% / 25% / 31%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
1. FC Magdeburg 4–1 FC St. Pauli — the model said 50% / 25% / 25%, most likely 2-1: result correct.

2. Bundesliga so far

Top of the table

1. Hertha BSC — 31 pts from 11 (10W 1D 0L, goals 25–9)
2. 1. FC Nürnberg — 24 pts from 11 (7W 3D 1L, goals 26–13)
3. 1. FC Kaiserslautern — 21 pts from 11 (6W 3D 2L, goals 10–7)
4. 1. FC Magdeburg — 20 pts from 11 (6W 2D 3L, goals 25–14)
5. VfL Wolfsburg — 19 pts from 11 (5W 4D 2L, goals 26–16)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 207 matches left: Hertha BSC 64.7%, 1. FC Nürnberg 16.4%, VfL Wolfsburg 9.8%.

Leading scorers: M. Zoma (1. FC Nürnberg) 7 goals, J. Grodowski (Arminia Bielefeld) 7 goals, F. Klaus (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) 7 goals.