Dynamo Dresden
vs
FC St. Pauli
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Dynamo Dresden 2–1 FC St. Pauli
The model makes it 46% Dynamo Dresden, 26% draw, 28% FC St. Pauli — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dynamo Dresden 1.76, FC St. Pauli 1.27.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Dynamo Dresden's rating is built from 45 2. Bundesliga matches and FC St. Pauli's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 715 matches.
Key facts
- Dynamo Dresden are 15th on 11 points from 11 games; FC St. Pauli are 9th on 12 points from 11 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Dynamo Dresden have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
- FC St. Pauli are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to 1. FC Magdeburg.
- Last 6 meetings: FC St. Pauli 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 12 March 2022, ended Dynamo Dresden 1–1 FC St. Pauli.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dynamo Dresden vs FC St. Pauli
Has the model earned this number?
Dynamo Dresden at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dynamo Dresden vs FC St. Pauli
Dynamo Dresden
2. Bundesliga
- W3-0SpVgg Greuther Fürth6 November 2026
- L1-2away to Hannover 961 November 2026
- L0-3away to Holstein Kiel25 October 2026
- W2-01. FC Magdeburg18 October 2026
- D1-1away to VfL Osnabrück10 October 2026
FC St. Pauli
2. Bundesliga
- L1-4away to 1. FC Magdeburg8 November 2026
- L1-31. FC Nürnberg1 November 2026
- D0-0away to SV Darmstadt 9823 October 2026
- D1-1away to Hannover 9617 October 2026
- W2-0Karlsruher SC11 October 2026
What these results say
- Dynamo Dresden scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC St. Pauli failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC St. Pauli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | FC St. Pauli | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dynamo Dresden
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 11% today
FC St. Pauli
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 12% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Dynamo Dresden vs FC St. Pauli
- 12 March 2022Dynamo Dresden 1–1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 27 October 2021Dynamo Dresden 2–3 FC St. PauliDFB Pokal
- 3 October 2021FC St. Pauli 3–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 14 February 2020FC St. Pauli 0–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 31 August 2019Dynamo Dresden 3–3 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 3 May 2019Dynamo Dresden 2–1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Dynamo Dresden and FC St. Pauli
Dynamo Dresden
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
FC St. Pauli
GoalsAssists
- Abdoulie Ceesay50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC St. Pauli (9th, with Dynamo Dresden 15th), while our numbers lean to Dynamo Dresden. Dynamo Dresden rate 0.73 in attack and 1.52 in defence, FC St. Pauli 0.60 and 1.39 (lower is better in defence), so Dynamo Dresden have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dynamo Dresden the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden against 1.27 for FC St. Pauli. Dynamo Dresden's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.39 for FC St. Pauli.
How the model reaches 46% for Dynamo Dresden to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Dynamo Dresden to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Dynamo Dresden's ratings add 2 points and FC St. Pauli's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Dynamo Dresden's ratings45%+2
- FC St. Pauli's ratings46%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Dynamo Dresden at home · FC St. Pauli away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Dynamo DresdenFC St. Pauli
Dynamo Dresden are 15th after 11 2. Bundesliga matches (between 11th and 18th so far); FC St. Pauli are 9th after 11 (between 7th and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Dynamo Dresden 11, FC St. Pauli 11.
Dynamo Dresden score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); FC St. Pauli have let in 1 there.
FC St. Pauli score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Dynamo Dresden have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Dynamo Dresden
- at Arminia Bielefeld4 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 28%
- vs Energie Cottbus12 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 46%
- at Karlsruher SC19 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
- vs VfL Wolfsburg17 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 33%
FC St. Pauli
- vs 1. FC Heidenheim6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 41%
- at VfL Osnabrück13 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 30%
- vs Hertha BSC19 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 27%
- at Eintracht Braunschweig16 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.