22 July 2026, 03:05 UTC

Toluca vs Pumas UNAM Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Toluca 1-2 Pumas UNAM.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Toluca, 30% draw, 26% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Toluca at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽J. Diaz Priceassist: Helinho
14'
Helinho
17'
46'
🔁P. Bennevendoout: S. Cordova
57'
⚽V. Arteagaassist: R. Morales
63'
⚽S. Cordovaassist: R. Lopez
🔁V. Guzmanout: N. Castro
66'
🔁J. Anguloout: F. Romero
66'
🔁A. Vegaout: J. Gallardo
66'
🔁B. A. Garcia Caprizoout: C. Carrillo
76'
80'
R. Lopez
🔁D. Barbosaout: S. Simon
86'
88'
🔁Juninhoout: A. Medina
90+1'
🔁R. Moralesout: G. Martinez
90+6'
🔁U. Antunaout: T. Leone

Match stats — Toluca vs Pumas UNAM

66%Possession34%
16Shots8
4On target3
9Corners1
1.19xG0.66

Goals against chances

Toluca1 from 1.19 xGabout what the chances were worth
Pumas UNAM2 from 0.66 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Toluca 4-2-3-1
  • 1Hugo GonzalezG
  • 2Diego BarbosaD
  • 4Bruno MéndezD
  • 13LuanD
  • 17Brian GarcíaD
  • 7Víctor GuzmánM
  • 24Fernando Arce JuárezM
  • 11HelinhoM
  • 10Jesús Ricardo AnguloM
  • 9Alexis VegaM
  • 29Jorge DíazF
Substitutes
  • 20Jesús GallardoD
  • 5Franco RomeroM
  • 8Nicolás CastroM
  • 191Carlos CarrilloF
  • 19Santiago SimónM
  • 22Luis GarcíaG
  • 6Federico PereiraD
  • 25Everardo LópezD
  • 3Antonio BriseñoD
Coach: Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
Pumas UNAM 4-3-3
  • 1Keylor NavasG
  • 2Pablo BennevendoD
  • 6Nathan SilvaD
  • 5Rubén DuarteD
  • 77Álvaro AnguloD
  • 7Rodrigo LopezM
  • 45Pedro ViteM
  • 18Victor ArteagaM
  • 21Uriel AntunaF
  • 23JuninhoF
  • 31Robert MoralesF
Substitutes
  • 17Sebastián CórdovaM
  • 22Alan MedinaF
  • 24Antonio LeoneD
  • 9Guillermo MartínezF
  • 35Pablo LaraG
  • 12Cristian CalderónD
  • 199Kleber CarranzaD
  • 34Angel AzuajeD
  • 20Santiago TrigosM
Coach: Esteban Solari

Form going into Toluca vs Pumas UNAM

Toluca

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Guadalajara Chivas19 July 2026

Pumas UNAM

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3CF Pachuca18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Toluca167633521+1427
11Pumas UNAM165652426-221

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Toluca vs Pumas UNAM

  • 4 March 2026Pumas UNAM 2–3 TolucaLiga MX
  • 17 August 2025Toluca 1–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 30 January 2025Pumas UNAM 1–1 TolucaLiga MX
  • 6 October 2024Toluca 1–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 18 March 2024Toluca 3–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX

The full Toluca vs Pumas UNAM record →

Leading scorers: Toluca and Pumas UNAM

Toluca

GoalsAssists

  • F. Viñas81
  • Paulinho50

Pumas UNAM

GoalsAssists

  • Juninho91
  • R. Morales54

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Pumas UNAM won 2–1 at Toluca. The model had leaned towards a win for Toluca at 44% and given a win for Pumas UNAM 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Diaz Price 14' for Toluca, V. Arteaga 57' for Pumas UNAM, S. Cordova 63' for Pumas UNAM. On expected goals it finished 1.19–0.66.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.