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Match preview · 25 September 2026 · UEFA Nations League

Denmark vs Wales: why the model makes it Denmark at 42%

Our model leans to Denmark here, but not by much: 42% (fair odds 2.38) against 27% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 25 September 2026 · UEFA Nations League

Norway vs Portugal: the model can't split them

Norway host Portugal in a game our model cannot separate: 35% for the home side, 28% for the draw and 37% for the visitors.

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Match preview · 24 September 2026 · UEFA Nations League

Bulgaria vs Luxembourg: why the model makes it Bulgaria at 42%

Our model leans to Bulgaria here, but not by much: 42% (fair odds 2.38) against 29% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 24 September 2026 · UEFA Nations League

England vs Spain: a genuine coin flip by the numbers

England host Spain in a game our model cannot separate: 32% for the home side, 29% for the draw and 39% for the visitors.

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Match preview · 24 September 2026 · UEFA Nations League

Slovenia vs Scotland: a genuine coin flip by the numbers

Slovenia host Scotland in a game our model cannot separate: 36% for the home side, 30% for the draw and 34% for the visitors.

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Match preview · 23 September 2026 · UEFA Nations League

Italy vs Belgium: the model can't split them

Italy host Belgium in a game our model cannot separate: 34% for the home side, 31% for the draw and 35% for the visitors.

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Match preview · 23 September 2026 · UEFA Nations League

Sweden vs Romania: a genuine coin flip by the numbers

Sweden host Romania in a game our model cannot separate: 32% for the home side, 29% for the draw and 39% for the visitors.

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Match preview · 23 September 2026 · UEFA Nations League

Türkiye vs France: why the model makes it France at 50%

Our model leans to France here, but not by much: 50% (fair odds 2.00) against 26% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Analysis · 5 September 2026

The Model Called Betis Right Against Real Madrid

Our model gave Real Betis 36% at home to Real Madrid and Betis won. It gave Ipswich 40% against Liverpool and Liverpool won.

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Analysis · 4 September 2026

Eighteen Matches, One Certainty

Across all eighteen Champions League opening fixtures our model gives exactly one team better than a 70% chance. The median favourite is 45%.

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