England vs Spain UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: England 2-3 Spain.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% England, 29% draw, 39% Spain — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Spain at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — England vs Spain
Line-ups
- 13J. TraffordG
- 22J. QuansahD
- 5E. KonsaD
- 6M. GuéhiD
- 3N. O'ReillyD
- 8E. AndersonM
- 16M. Lewis-SkellyM
- 7B. SakaM
- 10J. BellinghamM
- 11A. GordonM
- 9H. KaneF
- 2T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 21E. EzeM
- 18J. GarnerM
- 20M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 14L. HallD
- 1J. PickfordG
- 17M. RogersM
- 4A. ScottM
- 23J. SteeleG
- 23Unai SimónG
- 12Marc PubillD
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 22Marc CucurellaD
- 16RodriM
- 8Fabián RuizM
- 19Lamine YamalM
- 10Dani OlmoM
- 17Nico WilliamsM
- 7Ferran TorresF
- 15Álex BaenaM
- 20PedriM
- 3Álex GrimaldoD
- 2D. HuijsenD
- 9FermínM
- 13Josep MartínezG
- 6Mikel MerinoM
- 21Mikel OyarzabalF
- 11Yeremy PinoM
Form going into England vs Spain
England
All competitions we cover
- W6-4away to France18 July 2026
Spain
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Argentina19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | England | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 12 |
| 1 | Spain | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: England vs Spain
- 14 July 2024Spain 2–1 EnglandEuro Championship
- 15 October 2018Spain 2–3 EnglandUEFA Nations League
- 8 September 2018England 1–2 SpainUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: England and Spain
England
GoalsAssists
- H. Kane71
- A. Gordon31
Spain
GoalsAssists
- Lamine Yamal41
- Mikel Merino31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Spain won 3–2 at England. The model had made a win for Spain its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Lamine Yamal 2' for Spain, Anthony Gordon 36' for England, Harry Kane 40' for England, Alejandro Baena Rodríguez 60' for Spain, Mikel Oyarzabal 74' for Spain.