26 September 2026, 13:00 UTC

Slovenia vs Scotland UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Stožice Stadium, Ljubljana
Referee: Horatiu Fesnic
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Slovenia 0-0 Scotland.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Slovenia, 30% draw, 34% Scotland — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Slovenia at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Slovenia4%Draw93%Scotland3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
Andrew Robertson
🔁Vanja Drkusicout: David Zec
64'
🔁Timi Elsnikout: Mark Zabukovnik
64'
67'
🔁Robbie Ureout: Kieron Bowie
🔁David Brekaloout: Jure Balkovec
74'
🔁Andraž Šporarout: Zan Vipotnik
74'
Adam Gnezda Čerin
75'
78'
🔁Aaron Hickeyout: Ben Gannon-Doak
🔁Adam Gnezda Čerinout: Sandi Lovric
80'
Žan Karničnik
82'
Sandi Lovric
86'

Match stats — Slovenia vs Scotland

35%Possession65%
4Shots17
1On target5
5Corners4

Line-ups

Slovenia 5-4-1
  • 1J. OblakG
  • 2Ž. KarničnikD
  • 23D. BrekaloD
  • 6J. BijolD
  • 21V. DrkušićD
  • 13E. JanžaD
  • 20A. MatkoM
  • 22A. ČerinM
  • 10T. ElšnikM
  • 15D. ŠturmM
  • 9A. ŠporarF
Substitutes
  • 7T. BegićF
  • 3J. BalkovecD
  • 11Ž. CelarF
  • 19T. HorvatM
  • 5S. KuzmićD
  • 16Žan-Luk LebanG
  • 8S. LovrićM
  • 14T. SvetlinM
  • 12M. VidovšekG
Coach: B. Cesar
Scotland 3-4-1-2
  • 1A. GunnG
  • 13J. HendryD
  • 16S. McKennaD
  • 5S. WelshD
  • 2A. HickeyM
  • 8B. GilmourM
  • 19L. FergusonM
  • 3A. RobertsonM
  • 7J. McGinnM
  • 10R. UreF
  • 9O. McBurnieF
Substitutes
  • 22N. PattersonD
  • 21S. BainG
  • 4L. BinksD
  • 23Kristi MontgomeryM
  • 14L. MillerM
  • 15J. McPakeF
  • 12L. KellyG
  • 18L. GrahamD
  • 17B. DoakF
Coach: Sébastien Pocognoli

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Slovenia522153+28
3Scotland521256-17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Slovenia vs Scotland

  • 8 October 2017Slovenia 2–2 ScotlandWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 26 March 2017Scotland 1–0 SloveniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe

The result against the call

Slovenia and Scotland drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Slovenia at 36% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.