CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions

1 match ahead, from 21 November, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: Atletico Mineiro, 36% against Boca Juniors. 1 is marked Tight game — the two sides within 3 points, where the draw is a real outcome. How the model works.

Saturday 21 November — 1 match

21:00 UTC Atletico Mineiro vs Boca Juniors — model 36% / 31% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.23 · 3.03. Tight game · draw in reach

Last round: the model's hits and misses

21 October: the model called the result of 1 of 2 matches.

Vasco da Gama 1–3 Boca Juniors — the model said 35% / 28% / 37%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Atletico Torque 2–0 Atletico Mineiro — the model said 27% / 27% / 46%, most likely 0-1: result missed.

CONMEBOL Sudamericana so far

Final

Atletico Mineiro v Boca Juniors, 21 November.

Semi-finals

Boca Juniors went through against Vasco da Gama, 3–2 on aggregate.
Atletico Mineiro went through against Atletico Torque, 3–2 on aggregate.

Quarter-finals

Vasco da Gama went through against Santa Fe, 2–0 on aggregate.
Boca Juniors went through against Sao Paulo, 2–1 on aggregate.
Atletico Mineiro went through against Santos, on penalties after 4–4.
Atletico Torque went through against Cienciano, 3–2 on aggregate.

Leading scorers: S. Rodríguez (Atletico Torque) 7 goals, Gabriel Barbosa (Santos) 6 goals, Adson (Vasco da Gama) 5 goals.