Vasco da Gama vs Boca Juniors CONMEBOL Sudamericana prediction & result
Final score: Vasco da Gama 1-3 Boca Juniors.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Vasco da Gama, 28% draw, 37% Boca Juniors — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
The tie
Second leg of the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Semi-finals tie. First leg: Boca Juniors 0–1 Vasco da Gama (14 Oct) →
Boca Juniors went through 3–2 on aggregate.
All CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Boca Juniors at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vasco da Gama vs Boca Juniors
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Léo JardimG
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 5S. SosaM
- 28AdsonM
- 22A. LescanoM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 7DavidM
- 19Bruno DuarteF
- 18M. HinestrozaF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 55Gabriel PereiraD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 8JairM
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 20BrennerF
- 1Á. MonteroG
- 17L. LozanoD
- 2L. Di LolloD
- 42F. HerreraD
- 3L. BlancoD
- 6R. BattagliaM
- 18M. DelgadoM
- 22S. VillaM
- 25S. AscacíbarM
- 19L. FloresM
- 16M. MerentielF
- 30E. ValenciaF
- 53Joaquín RuízF
- 11Á. RomeroF
- 5L. ParedesM
- 7C. PalaciosM
- 24D. GorositoD
- 4N. FigalD
- 32A. CostaD
- 12L. BreyG
Form going into Vasco da Gama vs Boca Juniors
Vasco da Gama
CONMEBOL Sudamericana
- W1-0away to Boca Juniors14 October 2026
- W2-0Santa Fe15 September 2026
- D0-0away to Santa Fe8 September 2026
- W4-1away to Olimpia20 August 2026
Boca Juniors
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Talleres Cordoba17 October 2026
- L0-1Vasco da Gama14 October 2026
- D2-2away to Instituto Cordoba9 October 2026
- W3-0Union Santa Fe3 October 2026
- W2-0away to San Lorenzo20 September 2026
What these results say
- Vasco da Gama went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Vasco da Gama won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Vasco da Gama scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Boca Juniors scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama vs Boca Juniors
- 14 October 2026Boca Juniors 0–1 Vasco da GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
Leading scorers: Vasco da Gama and Boca Juniors
Vasco da Gama
GoalsAssists
- Adson53
Boca Juniors
GoalsAssists
- M. Merentiel41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Boca Juniors won 3–1 at Vasco da Gama. The model had made a win for Boca Juniors its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Lautaro Di Lollo 4' for Boca Juniors, Miguel Merentiel 34' for Boca Juniors, Jose Luis Rodriguez 66' for Vasco da Gama, Leandro Paredes 88' for Boca Juniors. On expected goals it finished 0.63–0.57.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Vasco da Gama's most recent league matches and Boca Juniors's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.