Atletico Torque vs Atletico Mineiro CONMEBOL Sudamericana prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Torque 2-0 Atletico Mineiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Atletico Torque, 27% draw, 46% Atletico Mineiro — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
The tie
Second leg of the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Semi-finals tie. First leg: Atletico Mineiro 3–0 Atletico Torque (14 Oct) →
Atletico Mineiro went through 3–2 on aggregate.
All CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Mineiro at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Torque vs Atletico Mineiro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. TorgnascioliG
- 17E. AgüeroD
- 3K. SilvaD
- 24G. KagelmacherD
- 26F. SilveraD
- 20G. MontesM
- 8P. SilesM
- 19D. GuzmánM
- 5F. PizzichilloF
- 9S. RodríguezF
- 10E. ObregónF
- 15E. BusquetsD
- 7Luka AndradeF
- 32S. CáceresM
- 23L. DuréM
- 2B. GutierrezD
- 18R. LecchiniF
- 16ignacio molinaF
- 21N. PerezD
- 30J. QuintanaF
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 21A. FrancoD
- 40VitãoD
- 13LyancoD
- 6Renan LodiD
- 8MayconM
- 15K. CastañoM
- 28T. CuelloM
- 30Victor HugoM
- 11BernardM
- 19ReinierF
- 39Mamady CisseM
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 5AlexsanderM
- 27A. MindaF
- 2NatanaelD
- 36K. PasciniD
- 92DuduF
- 31RobertG
- 23A. PreciadoD
Form going into Atletico Torque vs Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Torque
CONMEBOL Sudamericana
- L0-3away to Atletico Mineiro14 October 2026
- W3-0Cienciano18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Cienciano11 September 2026
- W2-1Tigre20 August 2026
Atletico Mineiro
CONMEBOL Sudamericana
- W3-0Atletico Torque14 October 2026
- L0-2away to Santos9 September 2026
- D2-2RB Bragantino19 August 2026
- W1-0away to RB Bragantino12 August 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Torque conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Atletico Torque had three goals or more.
- Atletico Mineiro scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
CONMEBOL Sudamericana table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Torque | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 13 |
| 1 | Atletico Mineiro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Torque vs Atletico Mineiro
- 14 October 2026Atletico Mineiro 3–0 Atletico TorqueCONMEBOL Sudamericana
Leading scorers: Atletico Torque and Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Torque
GoalsAssists
- S. Rodríguez71
- F. Pizzichillo31
Atletico Mineiro
GoalsAssists
- Bernard50
- T. Cuello34
- Reinier31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Torque beat Atletico Mineiro 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Mineiro at 46% and given a win for Atletico Torque 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kevin Isaias·Silva 89' for Atletico Torque, Gary Kagelmacher 90+3' for Atletico Torque. Sent off: Alan Franco (Atletico Mineiro) 75'. On expected goals it finished 3.58–0.61.
How the call on Atletico Torque v Atletico Mineiro has moved
First published on 7 Oct at 29% / 29% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 27% / 27% / 46%: the biggest move is Atletico Mineiro's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Atletico Torque win27%▼ −2
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Atletico Mineiro win46%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.