Carabao Cup predictions

Last round: the model's hits and misses

27–29 October: the model called the result of 3 of 8 matches.

• Bradford 2–0 Peterborough — the model said 52% / 29% / 19%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Fleetwood Town 1–1 Arsenal — the model said 3% / 9% / 88%, most likely 0-3: result missed.
• Manchester City 2–2 Brighton — the model said 53% / 24% / 23%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Bournemouth 3–0 Aston Villa — the model said 41% / 26% / 33%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Fulham 0–1 Crystal Palace — the model said 50% / 27% / 23%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Sunderland 3–2 Brentford — the model said 32% / 29% / 39%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
• Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea — the model said 58% / 22% / 20%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Everton 3–1 Newcastle — the model said 44% / 27% / 29%, most likely 1-0: result correct.

Carabao Cup so far

Quarter-finals

• Crystal Palace v Sunderland, 15 December.
• Liverpool v Bournemouth, 15 December.
• Manchester City v Bradford, 15 December.
• Fleetwood Town v Everton, 15 December.

Round of 16

• Crystal Palace went through against Fulham, 1–0.
• Sunderland went through against Brentford, 3–2.
• Bournemouth went through against Aston Villa, 3–0.
• Liverpool went through against Chelsea, on penalties after 1–1.
• Bradford went through against Peterborough, 2–0.
• Manchester City went through against Brighton, on penalties after 2–2.
• Fleetwood Town went through against Arsenal, on penalties after 1–1.
• Everton went through against Newcastle, 3–1.

Round of 32

• Crystal Palace went through against Middlesbrough, 3–0.
• Fulham went through against West Ham, 3–2.
• Sunderland went through against Hull City, 1–0.
• Brentford went through against Reading, 2–1.
• Bournemouth went through against Lincoln, 4–0.
• Aston Villa went through against Coventry, 3–1.
• Chelsea went through against Leeds, 6–3.
• Liverpool went through against Tottenham, 3–1.
• Bradford went through against Leyton Orient, 3–1.
• Peterborough went through against Barnsley, on penalties after 3–3.
• Brighton went through against Manchester United, 3–2.
• Manchester City went through against Norwich, 5–0.
• Arsenal went through against Ipswich, 4–2.
• Fleetwood Town went through against Sheffield Utd, 1–0.
• Newcastle went through against Millwall, 1–0.
• Everton went through against Wolves, 1–0.

Leading scorers: T. Barry (Everton) 4 goals, H. Leonard (Peterborough) 4 goals, R. Cleary (Barnsley) 3 goals.