27 October 2026, 20:00 UTC

Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal League Cup prediction & result

Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood
Referee: M. Salisbury
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Fleetwood Town 1-1 Arsenal.

Before kick-off the model made it 3% Fleetwood Town, 9% draw, 88% Arsenal — fair odds of 33.33, 11.11 and 1.14.

Most likely scoreline: 0-3.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Arsenal at 88%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Aaron Loupalo-Biassist: Harrison Neal
21'
45'
🔁Marli Salmonout: Martin Odegaard
45'
🔁Jurriën Timberout: Ben White
50'
⚽Viktor Gyökeres
Crispin McLean
54'
🔁Crispin McLeanout: Adam Murphy
66'
🔁Ched Evansout: Ronan Coughlan
66'
66'
🔁Ceadach O'Neillout: Eberechi Eze
Jake Thomas Batty
74'
🔁Mark Helmout: Andy Cannon
74'
82'
🔁Martín Zubimendiout: Bruno Guimarães
82'
🔁Myles Lewis-Skellyout: Ezri Konsa
🔁Aaron Loupalo-Biout: Will davies
82'
85'
Max Dowman
Andy Cannon
86'
⚽Ronan Coughlan (pen)
91'
92'
⚽Martin Odegaard (pen)
⚽Harrison Neal (pen)
93'
93'
⚽Kai Havertz (pen)
⚽Will davies (pen)
94'
95'
⚽Viktor Gyökeres (pen)
⚽Andy Cannon (pen)
95'
96'
⚽Bruno Guimarães (pen)
⚽Conor Haughey (pen)
97'

Match stats — Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal

48%Possession52%
3Shots26
2On target7
2Corners5
0.34xG2.28

Goals against chances

Fleetwood Town1 from 0.34 xGmore than the chances were worth
Arsenal1 from 2.28 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fleetwood Town 3-1-4-2
  • 1J. LynchG
  • 16Conor HaugheyD
  • 6R. BennettD
  • 5F. PotterD
  • 4H. NealM
  • 26S. RooneyM
  • 27C. McLeanM
  • 10M. HelmM
  • 24Jake Thomas BattyM
  • 17C. EvansF
  • 20A. Loupalo-BiF
Substitutes
  • 11Joshua ThomasF
  • 7A. CannonM
  • 3D. AndrewD
  • 29R. CirinoD
  • 19R. CoughlanF
  • 9W. DaviesF
  • 15A. MurphyM
  • 22J. PradicG
  • 28J. RobertsonM
Coach: M. Lawlor
Arsenal 4-2-3-1
  • 30I. MeslierG
  • 12J. TimberD
  • 3Cristhian MosqueraD
  • 89M. SalmonD
  • 5P. HincapiéD
  • 36Martín ZubimendiM
  • 49M. Lewis-SkellyM
  • 56M. DowmanM
  • 29K. HavertzM
  • 53C. O’NeillM
  • 14V. GyökeresF
Substitutes
  • 10E. EzeM
  • 39Bruno GuimarãesM
  • 43A. AnnousF
  • 15E. KonsaD
  • 74M. HashiM
  • 60M. WashingtonD
  • 4B. WhiteD
  • 13KepaG
  • 8M. ØdegaardM
Coach: Mikel Arteta

Form going into Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal

Fleetwood Town

League Two

  • L1-2away to Exeter City24 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Cheltenham20 October 2026
  • W2-0Rotherham17 October 2026

Arsenal

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Everton24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Bayern München21 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Nottingham Forest18 October 2026
  • W3-0Lille13 October 2026
  • W2-1Leeds10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Arsenal went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Arsenal scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Arsenal won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Leading scorers: Fleetwood Town and Arsenal

Fleetwood Town

GoalsAssists

  • R. Coughlan51

Arsenal

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fleetwood Town and Arsenal drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Arsenal at 88% and given a draw 9%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 11 matches like this one. Sent off: Max Dowman (Arsenal) 85'. On expected goals it finished 0.34–2.28.

How the call on Fleetwood Town v Arsenal has moved

First published on 13 Oct at 4% / 11% / 85% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 3% / 9% / 88%: the biggest move is Arsenal's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Fleetwood Town win3%▼ −1
  2. Draw9%▼ −2
  3. Arsenal win88%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.