Vitória SC
vs
SC Braga
Taça de Portugal prediction
Our model says: Vitória SC 0–1 SC Braga
The model makes it 32% Vitória SC, 29% draw, 39% SC Braga — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Vitória SC 1.17, SC Braga 1.36.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,325 settled matches.
Edge to SC Braga: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Vitória SC's rating is built from 45 Primeira Liga matches and SC Braga's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Vitória SC have won 1 of their last 5 Primeira Liga games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to FC Porto.
- SC Braga have won 2 of their last 5 Primeira Liga games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Rio Ave.
- Last 6 meetings: SC Braga 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 August 2026, ended SC Braga 1–0 Vitória SC.
Chance to go through
Taça de Portugal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Vitória SC32%
- Level after ninety minutes28%
- SC Braga40%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Taça de Portugal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vitória SC vs SC Braga
Has the model earned this number?
SC Braga at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vitória SC vs SC Braga
Vitória SC
Primeira Liga
- L1-2FC Porto8 November 2026
- D0-0away to GIL Vicente2 November 2026
- W5-0Maritimo23 October 2026
- L0-2away to Benfica11 October 2026
- D1-1Moreirense20 September 2026
SC Braga
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Rio Ave8 November 2026
- D0-0away to Aarhus5 November 2026
- W3-0Famalicao1 November 2026
- D2-2Famalicao29 October 2026
- L0-1away to Nacional25 October 2026
What these results say
- Vitória SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: SC Braga vs Vitória SC
SC Braga and Vitória SC have met 6 times in the records we hold, SC Braga has won 3 of them to Vitória SC's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
SC Braga won the last one 1–0 on 31 Aug 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 |
| Vitória SC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Aug 2026
Primeira LigaSC Braga 1–0 Vitória SC - 21 Feb 2026
Primeira LigaSC Braga 3–2 Vitória SC - 10 Jan 2026
Taça da LigaVitória SC 2–1 SC Braga - 20 Sep 2025
Primeira LigaVitória SC 1–1 SC Braga - 16 Feb 2025
Primeira LigaVitória SC 0–0 SC Braga - 31 Oct 2024
Taça da LigaSC Braga 2–1 Vitória SC
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, SC Braga's attack rates 34% above Vitória SC's, and SC Braga concede 15% fewer than Vitória SC. That gives SC Braga the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | 1.11 | 0.87 |
| Vitória SC | 0.83 | 1.02 |
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Braga the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Vitória SC against 1.36 for SC Braga. Vitória SC's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/0.87 for SC Braga.
How the model reaches 39% for SC Braga to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for SC Braga to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Vitória SC's ratings add 5 points and SC Braga's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Vitória SC's ratings34%+5
- SC Braga's ratings39%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Vitória SC's most recent league matches and SC Braga's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Vitória SC at home · SC Braga away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Vitória SC 11, SC Braga 11.
Vitória SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); SC Braga have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Vitória SC
- vs Estrela28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 47%
- at Estoril6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 41%
- vs Alverca13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 40%
- at Santa Clara20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 26%
- vs Rio Ave27 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 54%
SC Braga
- vs KuPS26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 77%
- at Casa Pia30 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 54%
- vs Arouca5 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 48%
- at Brann10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 45%
- at Benfica14 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 21%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.