SC Braga vs Vitória SC Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: SC Braga 1-0 Vitória SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% SC Braga, 29% draw, 32% Vitória SC — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
SC Braga at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SC Braga vs Vitória SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Bernardo FontesG
- 14Gustaf LagerbielkeD
- 6Vítor CarvalhoD
- 22Sergio BarciaD
- 2Victor GómezM
- 34Demir Ege TıknazM
- 8João MoutinhoM
- 7Diogo TravassosM
- 20Mario DorgelesF
- 11Gabriel SilvaF
- 10Pau VíctorF
- 17Jovan MiloševićF
- 16Tomás MarquésM
- 50Diego RodriguesM
- 44Adrian BajramiD
- 9Fran NavarroF
- 78Joao CarvalhoG
- 12Tiago SáG
- 53Jonatás NoroD
- 37Adrian Leon BarišićD
- 48Oliwier ZychG
- 23Tony StrataD
- 4Óscar RivasD
- 28Thiago BalieiroD
- 13João MendesD
- 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
- 44Lohann DoucetM
- 11Gustavo SilvaM
- 20SamuM
- 17Miguel NogueiraM
- 24Alioune NdoyeF
- 16Beni MukendiM
- 7Oumar CamaraF
- 19Victor AnderssonM
- 29Patrick OuotroF
- 18Telmo ArcanjoM
- 22Juan CastilloG
- 82Francisco DiasD
- 15Yeimar MosqueraD
- 5Franck Ahmed SidibéD
Form going into SC Braga vs Vitória SC
SC Braga
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Austria Vienna27 August 2026
- W2-0Austria Vienna20 August 2026
- D0-0away to Dinamo Minsk13 August 2026
- D2-2away to Moreirense9 August 2026
- W1-0Dinamo Minsk6 August 2026
Vitória SC
No earlier matches on record this season.
What these results say
- SC Braga went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- SC Braga kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SC Braga had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SC Braga | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Braga vs Vitória SC
- 21 February 2026SC Braga 3–2 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 10 January 2026Vitória SC 2–1 SC BragaTaça da Liga
- 20 September 2025Vitória SC 1–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 16 February 2025Vitória SC 0–0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 31 October 2024SC Braga 2–1 Vitória SCTaça da Liga
Leading scorers: SC Braga and Vitória SC
SC Braga
GoalsAssists
- Pau Victor51
Vitória SC
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
SC Braga beat Vitória SC 1–0. The model had made a win for SC Braga its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: D. Rodrigues 79' for SC Braga. On expected goals it finished 0.83–0.23.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.