Taça de Portugal predictions

Saturday 21 November — 4 matches

• 15:00 UTC AVS vs Tondela — model 43% / 27% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 3.70 · 3.33. Evenly matched
• 16:00 UTC Estoril vs Felgueiras 1932 — model 55% / 24% / 21%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.82 · 4.17 · 4.76. Edge: Estoril
• 17:00 UTC Maritimo vs Chaves — model 60% / 21% / 19%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.67 · 4.76 · 5.26. Edge: Maritimo
• 20:30 UTC Vitória SC vs SC Braga — model 32% / 29% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.45 · 2.56. Edge: SC Braga

Sunday 22 November — 2 matches

• 18:00 UTC Estrela vs Portimonense — model 62% / 22% / 16%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.61 · 4.55 · 6.25. One-sided: Estrela
• 20:45 UTC Torreense vs Benfica — model 10% / 18% / 72%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 10.00 · 5.56 · 1.39. One-sided: Benfica

Last round: the model's hits and misses

17–18 October: the model called the result of 2 of 4 matches, 1 of them to the exact score.

• AVS 1–0 Moreirense — the model said 43% / 28% / 29%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
• Academica 3–2 Amarante — the model said 52% / 25% / 23%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Tondela 2–0 Alverca — the model said 35% / 28% / 37%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• CF Os Belenenses 3–4 Arouca — the model said 22% / 27% / 51%, most likely 0-1: result missed.

Taça de Portugal so far

Round of 32

• FC Porto v Paredes, 20 November.
• AVS v Tondela, 21 November.
• Atlético CP v Casa Pia, 21 November.
• Estoril v Felgueiras 1932, 21 November.
• Mafra v Arouca, 21 November.
• Maritimo v Chaves, 21 November.
• Sporting CP v UD da Serra, 21 November.
• Vitória SC v SC Braga, 21 November.
• Estrela v Portimonense, 22 November.
• GIL Vicente v Olhanense, 22 November.
• União de Leiria v Leça, 22 November.
• Sanjoanense v Academica, 22 November.
• Farense v Fátima, 22 November.
• Vianense v Rio Ave, 22 November.
• Torreense v Benfica, 22 November.
• Vitória de Sernache v Lusitânia Lourosa, 22 November.

Round of 64

• Paredes went through against Famalicao, 1–0.
• AVS went through against Moreirense, 1–0.
• Tondela went through against Alverca, 2–0.
• Atlético CP went through against Vizela, 1–0.
• Casa Pia went through against Alpendorada, 1–0.
• Felgueiras 1932 went through against Fafe, 1–0.
• Estoril went through against Salgueiros, on penalties after 1–1.
• Mafra went through against Santa Clara, 3–2.
• Arouca went through against CF Os Belenenses, 4–3.
• Chaves went through against Os Marialvas, 2–1.
• Maritimo went through against Alcochetense, 2–1.
• UD da Serra went through against Vitoria Setubal, on penalties after 1–1.
• Vitória SC went through against Recreativa de Lamelas, 1–0.
• Estrela went through against Fazendense, 2–1.
• Portimonense went through against Florgrade, 2–1.
• GIL Vicente went through against União Santarém, 3–2.
• Olhanense went through against Oliveira Hospital, on penalties after 1–1.
• União de Leiria went through against Bragança, 2–1.
• Leça went through against Penafiel, 1–0.
• Academica went through against Amarante, 3–2.
• Sanjoanense went through against Nacional, 1–0.
• Farense went through against AD Marco 09, 3–0.
• Fátima went through against Academico Viseu, 1–0.
• Rio Ave went through against Louletano, 1–0.
• Vianense went through against Leixoes, 1–0.
• Vitória de Sernache went through against Brito, 1–0.
• Lusitânia Lourosa went through against Os Limianos, 2–1.

Form going in

Each club's latest league results, oldest first.

• AVS have won 2 of their last 5 (D W W L D); Tondela have won 3 of their last 5 (W W L W D).
• Estoril have not won in their last 5 (L L L L L); Felgueiras 1932 have not won in their last 5 (L L D L D).
• Maritimo have not won in their last 5 (L D L L L); Chaves have won 1 of their last 5 (L D W L L).
• Vitória SC have won 1 of their last 5 (D L W D L); SC Braga have won 2 of their last 5 (L L L W W).
• Estrela have not won in their last 5 (L L L L L); Portimonense have won 2 of their last 5 (L W L D W).
• Torreense have won 1 of their last 5 (D L W D L); Benfica have won 4 of their last 5 (L W W W W).

In 2 of the 6 ties where form separates the two sides, the club in better form is also the model's favourite.

Against form: in AVS vs Tondela the model still makes AVS favourites at 43%, although Tondela come in with the better recent results — it rates each club on its whole season and the level it plays at, not on five matches.

Against form: in Estoril vs Felgueiras 1932 the model still makes Estoril favourites at 55%, although Felgueiras 1932 come in with the better recent results — it rates each club on its whole season and the level it plays at, not on five matches.

Against form: in Maritimo vs Chaves the model still makes Maritimo favourites at 60%, although Chaves come in with the better recent results — it rates each club on its whole season and the level it plays at, not on five matches.

Against form: in Estrela vs Portimonense the model still makes Estrela favourites at 62%, although Portimonense come in with the better recent results — it rates each club on its whole season and the level it plays at, not on five matches.