Aalesund vs Tromso Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Aalesund 2-6 Tromso.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Aalesund, 23% draw, 37% Tromso — fair odds of 2.50, 4.35 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Aalesund at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aalesund vs Tromso
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. PodlechG
- 2M. AndresenD
- 4S. HaramD
- 22E. EngqvistD
- 3O. GudmundssonD
- 14U. CharlesD
- 6H. Hammer
- 18E. HagenM
- 8H. MellandM
- 39K. LonebuF
- 15E. OsenbrochF
- 26T. LarsenG
- 10M. Kristensen
- 45P. AuklandD
- 11D. JohannssonM
- 25U. Syversen
- 20I. DjantouF
- 7K. NessoM
- 16J. Orsahl
- 17E. MyrlidF
- 1J. HaugaardG
- 17I. DahlqvistD
- 30I. VadebuD
- 4V. SkjaervikD
- 3M. TonnessenD
- 29A. Thongla-Iad WarnerydD
- 5D. EdvardssonM
- 11R. JenssenM
- 7L. O. LarsenM
- 22H. LarsenF
- 10T. NyhammerF
- 12O. LauvliG
- 25C. OyvannD
- 9D. BrautF
- 27M. MikkelsenM
- 8J. GrundtM
- 37S. InnvaerM
- 20Ieltsin Camoes
- 19A. L. ElvebuM
- 16B. MyrvoldD
Form going into Aalesund vs Tromso
Aalesund
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Viking26 July 2026
Tromso
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Hradec Králové30 July 2026
- L0-1Hradec Králové23 July 2026
- W4-1away to Ham-Kam18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Aalesund | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 45 | 60 | -15 | 24 |
| 6 | Tromso | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 43 | 40 | +3 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aalesund vs Tromso
- 25 May 2026Tromso 1–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 8 March 2025Aalesund 1–0 TromsoFriendlies Clubs
- 8 October 2023Tromso 1–2 AalesundEliteserien
- 11 June 2023Aalesund 2–3 TromsoEliteserien
- 13 November 2022Tromso 2–2 AalesundEliteserien
Leading scorers: Aalesund and Tromso
Aalesund
GoalsAssists
- M. Christensen116
- H. M. Reed83
Tromso
GoalsAssists
- H. Larsen104
- J. Hjertø-Dahl72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Tromso won 6–2 at Aalesund. The model had leaned towards a win for Aalesund at 40% and given a win for Tromso 37%. The goals: D. Edvardsson 9' for Tromso, I. Vadebu (own goal) 42' for Aalesund, A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd 48' for Tromso, A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd 54' for Tromso, E. Osenbroch 59' for Aalesund, A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd 69' for Tromso, H. Larsen 81' for Tromso, U. Syversen (own goal) 90' for Tromso. On expected goals it finished 2.46–1.82.