Start vs Viking Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Start 0-3 Viking.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Start, 24% draw, 32% Viking — fair odds of 2.27, 4.17 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Start at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Start vs Viking
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jacob PrytsG
- 29Erlend Dahl ReitanD
- 6John Olav NorheimD
- 28Jens Berland HusebøD
- 27Ousmane Diallo ToureM
- 10Steve MvouéM
- 20Hakon LorentzenM
- 16Tom StrannegårdM
- 11Eirik SchulzeF
- 17Jesper CorneliusF
- 22James AmpofoF
- 39Dennis BirkenesG
- 3Altin UjkaniD
- 4Johan MeyerD
- 30Lukas Hjelleset GausdalM
- 12Deni DashaevD
- 14Markus SoometsM
- 35Santino SamuyiwaM
- 1Arild ØstbøG
- 18Sondre Flem BjørsholD
- 5Henrik HeggheimD
- 3Viljar VevatneD
- 28Kristoffer HaugenD
- 7Kristoffer AskildsenM
- 29Tobias MoiM
- 26Simen Kvia-EgeskogM
- 10Zlatko TripićF
- 20Peter ChristiansenF
- 17Edvin AustbøF
- 30Ľubomír BelkoG
- 24Vetle AuklendD
- 38Fillip Voster BotnenD
- 2Herman Johan HaugenD
- 15Ola VistedM
- 23Niklas Kemp FuglestadF
- 16Ruben AlteM
- 33Jakob Segadal HansenM
- 11Romano PostemaF
Form going into Start vs Viking
Start
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Kristiansund BK25 July 2026
- L0-3Rosenborg18 July 2026
Viking
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Aalesund26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Lillestrom22 July 2026
- W2-1Sandefjord18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Start | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 27 | 59 | -32 | 19 |
| 1 | Viking | 26 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 69 | 27 | +42 | 62 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Start vs Viking
- 16 May 2026Viking 6–3 StartEliteserien
- 6 February 2026Viking 4–0 StartFriendlies Clubs
- 23 March 2025Start 4–3 VikingFriendlies Clubs
- 25 April 2021Viking 3–3 StartFriendlies Clubs
- 28 November 2020Viking 4–1 StartEliteserien
Leading scorers: Start and Viking
Start
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.
Viking
GoalsAssists
- P. Christiansen187
- S. Kvia-Egeskog93
- H. Heggheim73
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Viking won 3–0 at Start. The model had leaned towards a win for Start at 44% and given a win for Viking 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Z. Tripic (penalty) 5' for Viking, P. Christiansen 18' for Viking, E. Austbo 22' for Viking. On expected goals it finished 1.73–1.28.