Eliteserien predictions & fixtures

Friday 20 November — 1 match

18:00 UTC Molde vs Bodo/Glimt — model 30% / 23% / 47%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.33 · 4.35 · 2.13. Edge: Bodo/Glimt

13:00 UTC Tromso vs Viking — model 24% / 24% / 52%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.17 · 4.17 · 1.92. One-sided: Viking
15:00 UTC Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad — model 42% / 27% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 3.70 · 3.23. Evenly matched
17:00 UTC Valerenga vs Start — model 60% / 22% / 18%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.67 · 4.55 · 5.56. Edge: Valerenga

16:00 UTC Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord — model 33% / 28% / 39%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.03 · 3.57 · 2.56. Edge: Sandefjord
16:00 UTC Aalesund vs Rosenborg — model 24% / 22% / 54%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.17 · 4.55 · 1.85. One-sided: Rosenborg
16:00 UTC KFUM Oslo vs Brann — model 34% / 26% / 40%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.85 · 2.50. Edge: Brann
18:15 UTC Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom — model 33% / 29% / 38%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.45 · 2.63. Edge: Lillestrom

15:00 UTC Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo — model 70% / 19% / 11%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.43 · 5.26 · 9.09. One-sided: Bodo/Glimt
17:00 UTC Rosenborg vs Molde — model 55% / 21% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.82 · 4.76 · 4.17. Edge: Rosenborg

13:30 UTC Fredrikstad vs Aalesund — model 43% / 25% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 4.00 · 3.13. Evenly matched
16:00 UTC Brann vs Kristiansund BK — model 59% / 22% / 19%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.69 · 4.55 · 5.26. Edge: Brann
16:00 UTC Sandefjord vs Tromso — model 42% / 27% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 3.70 · 3.23. Evenly matched
16:00 UTC Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — model 34% / 28% / 38%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.94 · 3.57 · 2.63. Edge: Sarpsborg 08 FF
18:15 UTC Viking vs Valerenga — model 66% / 19% / 15%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.52 · 5.26 · 6.67. One-sided: Viking

7–9 November: the model called the result of 5 of 8 matches. Across all 103 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 54% of results.

Rosenborg 4–1 Start — the model said 73% / 17% / 10%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
Tromso 0–2 Bodo/Glimt — the model said 25% / 25% / 50%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
Ham-Kam 3–0 Sarpsborg 08 FF — the model said 38% / 27% / 35%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Lillestrom 3–2 Aalesund — the model said 53% / 23% / 24%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Sandefjord 5–5 Molde — the model said 34% / 26% / 40%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Viking 5–1 KFUM Oslo — the model said 67% / 20% / 13%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
Fredrikstad 2–2 Brann — the model said 32% / 27% / 41%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Kristiansund BK 1–0 Valerenga — the model said 32% / 25% / 43%, most likely 1-2: result missed.

Top of the table

1. Viking — 62 pts from 26 (20W 2D 4L, goals 69–27)
2. Bodo/Glimt — 62 pts from 26 (20W 2D 4L, goals 63–23)
3. Rosenborg — 46 pts from 26 (14W 4D 8L, goals 53–32)
4. Lillestrom — 45 pts from 26 (14W 3D 9L, goals 39–35)
5. Molde — 44 pts from 26 (13W 5D 8L, goals 64–44)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 32 matches left: Viking 50.1%, Bodo/Glimt 49.9%.

Leading scorers: P. Christiansen (Viking) 18 goals, Amin Chiakha (Rosenborg) 18 goals, K. Lonebu (Molde) 15 goals.