Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Al-Qadisiyah FC, 26% draw, 23% Al-Ahli Jeddah — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Qadisiyah FC at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. CasteelsG
- 4J. ThakriD
- 6N. FernandezD
- 17G. AlvarezD
- 2M. Abu Al ShamatM
- 14T. ReijndersM
- 5J. WeiglM
- 22C. Bonsu BaahM
- 33J. QuinonesF
- 10M. Al JuwayrF
- 32M. ReteguiF
- 28A. Al KassarG
- 12Y. Al ShahraniD
- 7T. Al AmmarM
- 15M. Al QahtaniF
- 18A. Al JaberM
- 27E. HoussaM
- 9A. Al SalemF
- 46A. Al Aliwa
- 77S. Harun
- 16E. MendyG
- 46R. HamidouD
- 28M. DemiralD
- 3IbanezD
- 31S. BalobaidD
- 6V. AtanganaM
- 8E. SpertsyanM
- 9F. Al BuraikanM
- 7TrincaoM
- 13GalenoM
- 17I. ToneyF
- 1A. Al SanbiG
- 5M. SulaimanD
- 2Z. Al HawsawiD
- 15S. BaattiaD
- 66N. MasoudM
- 47S. Abu Al ShamatF
- 11M. Al MutairiM
- 29M. AbdulrahmanD
- 21A. RadifF
Form going into Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Qadisiyah FC
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Al Diriyah3 September 2026
- W3-1Al-Faisaly FC30 August 2026
Al-Ahli Jeddah
All competitions we cover
- W5-0Al Riyadh4 September 2026
- L0-3away to Al-Hilal1 September 2026
- L1-3away to Al Kholood29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 12 | +20 | 28 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Qadisiyah FC
GoalsAssists
- T. Reijnders83
- M. Retegui72
- J. Quiñones65
Al-Ahli Jeddah
GoalsAssists
- I. Toney132
- Trincão63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–2. The model had made a win for Al-Qadisiyah FC its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: T. Reijnders 14' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, M. Abu Al Shamat 45' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, T. Reijnders 45' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, I. Toney 63' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, I. Toney 82' for Al-Ahli Jeddah. On expected goals it finished 2.55–1.26.
How the call on Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Ahli Jeddah has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 51% / 26% / 23%: the biggest move is Al-Qadisiyah FC's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC win51%▲ +4
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Al-Ahli Jeddah win23%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.