Amiens
vs
Caen
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Amiens 1–0 Caen
The model makes it 54% Amiens, 26% draw, 20% Caen — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Amiens 1.79, Caen 0.87.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Amiens: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Amiens's rating is built from 12 Ligue 3 matches and Caen's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Amiens are 5th on 20 points from 12 games; Caen are 3rd on 22 points from 12 games — Ligue 3.
- Amiens are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Aubagne.
- Caen are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Versailles.
- Last 6 meetings: Caen 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 March 2025, ended Amiens 2–1 Caen.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Amiens vs Caen
Has the model earned this number?
Amiens at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Amiens vs Caen
Amiens
Ligue 3
- W2-0away to Aubagne7 November 2026
- D1-1Thionville Lusitanos29 October 2026
- D1-1away to Valenciennes17 October 2026
- W3-0Villefranche3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Quevilly26 September 2026
Caen
Ligue 3
- W1-0Versailles7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Le Puy Foot31 October 2026
- W2-1La Roche VF15 October 2026
- L2-3away to Fleury 913 October 2026
- W3-2Rouen24 September 2026
What these results say
- Amiens went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Amiens scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Amiens had two goals or fewer.
- Caen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Caen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Caen had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Amiens | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 20 |
| 3 | Caen | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Amiens
Chance to finish in the top six · 90% today
Caen
Chance to finish in the top six · 58% today
From our Ligue 3 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Amiens vs Caen
- 14 March 2025Amiens 2–1 CaenLigue 2
- 24 September 2024Caen 2–1 AmiensLigue 2
- 10 February 2024Caen 2–0 AmiensLigue 2
- 19 December 2023Amiens 0–0 CaenLigue 2
- 20 May 2023Amiens 1–3 CaenLigue 2
- 10 September 2022Caen 3–1 AmiensLigue 2
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Caen (third, with Amiens fifth), while our numbers lean to Amiens. Amiens rate 0.54 in attack and 1.18 in defence, Caen 0.61 and 2.04 (lower is better in defence), so Amiens have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Amiens a 21.1% chance of the title and Caen 4.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Amiens the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Amiens against 0.87 for Caen. Amiens's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/2.04 for Caen.
How the model reaches 54% for Amiens to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Amiens to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Amiens's ratings add 3 points and Caen's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Amiens's ratings46%+3
- Caen's ratings54%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Amiens at home · Caen away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Amiens 12, Caen 12.
Amiens score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Caen have let in 1 there.
Caen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Amiens have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Amiens
- at Bourg-en-bresse 015 Dec · Ligue 3win 55%
- vs Gobelins12 Dec · Ligue 3win 60%
- at Concarneau16 Jan · Ligue 3win 41%
- vs Rouen23 Jan · Ligue 3win 48%
- at La Roche VF30 Jan · Ligue 3win 34%
Caen
- vs Cannes3 Dec · Ligue 3win 40%
- at Orleans10 Dec · Ligue 3win 37%
- vs Quevilly16 Jan · Ligue 3win 53%
- at Villefranche23 Jan · Ligue 3win 48%
- vs Thionville Lusitanos30 Jan · Ligue 3win 52%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.