Ligue 3 predictions & fixtures

Thursday 19 November — 1 match

19:45 UTC Amiens vs Caen — model 54% / 26% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.85 · 3.85 · 5.00. Edge: Amiens

Saturday 21 November — 7 matches

13:45 UTC Quevilly vs Valenciennes — model 48% / 25% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.08 · 4.00 · 3.70. Evenly matched
13:45 UTC Bastia vs Villefranche — model 53% / 25% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.00 · 4.55. Edge: Bastia
13:45 UTC Le Puy Foot vs Gobelins — model 51% / 28% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.96 · 3.57 · 4.76. Edge: Le Puy Foot
13:45 UTC Versailles vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 — model 67% / 21% / 12%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.49 · 4.76 · 8.33. One-sided: Versailles
13:45 UTC Fleury 91 vs Rouen — model 38% / 26% / 36%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.63 · 3.85 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
13:45 UTC La Roche VF vs Concarneau — model 52% / 26% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.92 · 3.85 · 4.55. Edge: La Roche VF
13:45 UTC Cannes vs Aubagne — model 62% / 24% / 14%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.61 · 4.17 · 7.14. One-sided: Cannes

Monday 23 November — 1 match

19:45 UTC Orleans vs Thionville Lusitanos — model 41% / 26% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 3.85 · 3.03. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

5–7 November: the model called the result of 5 of 9 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 35 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 63% of results.

Valenciennes 2–2 Orleans — the model said 42% / 27% / 31%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Aubagne 0–2 Amiens — the model said 21% / 29% / 50%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Bourg-en-bresse 01 1–1 Le Puy Foot — the model said 24% / 29% / 47%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
Caen 1–0 Versailles — the model said 41% / 25% / 34%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Concarneau 2–0 Fleury 91 — the model said 38% / 28% / 34%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Gobelins 0–1 La Roche VF — the model said 30% / 30% / 40%, most likely 0-1: exact scoreline.
Rouen 2–0 Bastia — the model said 53% / 26% / 21%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Thionville Lusitanos 1–0 Cannes — the model said 33% / 28% / 39%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Villefranche 0–2 Quevilly — the model said 38% / 26% / 36%, most likely 2-1: result missed.

Ligue 3 so far

Top of the table

1. La Roche VF — 27 pts from 12 (8W 3D 1L, goals 19–10)
2. Rouen — 26 pts from 12 (8W 2D 2L, goals 22–9)
3. Caen — 22 pts from 12 (7W 1D 4L, goals 22–15)
4. Versailles — 22 pts from 12 (7W 1D 4L, goals 19–14)
5. Amiens — 20 pts from 12 (5W 5D 2L, goals 16–5)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 198 matches left: La Roche VF 28.1%, Rouen 25.3%, Amiens 21.1%.