FC Fredericia
vs
Hillerød
1. Division prediction
Our model says: FC Fredericia 1–0 Hillerød
The model makes it 57% FC Fredericia, 26% draw, 17% Hillerød — fair odds of 1.75, 3.85 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: FC Fredericia 1.79, Hillerød 0.76.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to FC Fredericia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FC Fredericia's rating is built from 14 1. Division (Denmark) matches and Hillerød's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Fredericia are 3rd on 23 points from 14 games; Hillerød are 8th on 15 points from 14 games — 1. Division.
- FC Fredericia have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Vejle.
- Hillerød have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Kolding IF.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Fredericia 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 October 2026, ended Hillerød 0–2 FC Fredericia.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Fredericia vs Hillerød
Has the model earned this number?
FC Fredericia at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Fredericia vs Hillerød
FC Fredericia
1. Division
- L0-1away to Vejle6 November 2026
- W3-1AB Copenhagen31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Esbjerg24 October 2026
- W3-0Hobro17 October 2026
- W2-0away to Hillerød10 October 2026
Hillerød
1. Division
- W3-1Kolding IF7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Aarhus Fremad1 November 2026
- W2-1Aalborg24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hvidovre18 October 2026
- L0-2FC Fredericia10 October 2026
What these results say
- FC Fredericia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hillerød conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Denmark 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 23 |
| 8 | Hillerød | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Fredericia
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 7% today
Hillerød
Chance to finish in the top six · 28% today
From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FC Fredericia vs Hillerød
- 10 October 2026Hillerød 0–2 FC Fredericia1. Division
- 7 March 2025FC Fredericia 0–2 Hillerød1. Division
- 23 September 2024Hillerød 0–3 FC Fredericia1. Division
- 20 October 2023Hillerød 1–1 FC Fredericia1. Division
- 11 August 2023FC Fredericia 3–2 Hillerød1. Division
- 26 May 2023FC Fredericia 4–0 Hillerød1. Division
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Fredericia a 7.2% chance of the title and Hillerød 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on FC Fredericia v Hillerød has moved
First published on 5 Nov at 59% / 25% / 16% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 57% / 26% / 17%: the biggest move is FC Fredericia's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- FC Fredericia win57%▼ −2
- Draw26%▲ +1
- Hillerød win17%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Fredericia the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for FC Fredericia against 0.76 for Hillerød. FC Fredericia's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.96 for Hillerød.
How the model reaches 57% for FC Fredericia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Fredericia to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, FC Fredericia's ratings add 7 points and Hillerød's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- FC Fredericia's ratings49%+7
- Hillerød's ratings57%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Fredericia at home · Hillerød away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: FC Fredericia 14, Hillerød 14.
FC Fredericia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Hillerød have let in 2 there.
Hillerød score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); FC Fredericia have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Fredericia
- at Hobro29 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 46%
- vs Hvidovre6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 45%
- vs Kolding IF20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 57%
- at Aarhus Fremad27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 36%
- at HB Koge6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 43%
Hillerød
- vs Vendsyssel FF28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 51%
- vs HB Koge5 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 46%
- at Hobro20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 33%
- vs Hvidovre27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 32%
- at AB Copenhagen6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 21%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.