Andorra vs Malta UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Andorra 1-2 Malta.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Andorra, 32% draw, 39% Malta — fair odds of 3.45, 3.13 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Malta at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Andorra vs Malta
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Iker ÁlvarezG
- 2Biel Borra FontD
- 5Max LloveraD
- 22Ian Bryan OliveraD
- 15Moisés San NicolásD
- 23Ot Remolins PlanesM
- 3Pau BabotM
- 16Éric IzquierdoM
- 17Aron RodrigoM
- 20Gerard Sola GarciaF
- 10Guillaume LopezF
- 14Jordi AláezM
- 11Albert RosasF
- 7Alexandre MartínezF
- 21Alex Cornella MolinsD
- 8Éric ValesM
- 13Alex RuizG
- 1Marc De Castro PratG
- 4Christian GarcíaD
- 6Francisco PomaresD
- 1Henry BonelloG
- 22Zach MuscatD
- 5Kurt ShawD
- 13Enrico PepeD
- 3Ryan CamenzuliD
- 6Matthew GuillaumierM
- 23Alexander SatarianoM
- 20Ylyas ChouarefM
- 10Teddy TeumaM
- 8Paul MbongM
- 11Irvin CardonaF
- 21Juan Carlos CorbalanF
- 7Brandon PaiberM
- 19Keyon EwurumF
- 9Jake GrechF
- 12James SissonsG
- 16Rashed Al-TumiG
- 2Adam OverendD
- 4Gabriel MentzD
- 15Myles BeermanD
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Andorra | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 1 | Malta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Andorra vs Malta
- 19 November 2024Malta 0–0 AndorraUEFA Nations League
- 10 September 2024Andorra 0–1 MaltaUEFA Nations League
- 14 November 2020Malta 3–1 AndorraUEFA Nations League
- 10 October 2020Andorra 0–0 MaltaUEFA Nations League
The result against the call
Malta won 2–1 at Andorra. The model had made a win for Malta its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Guillaume Lopez 17' for Andorra, Irvin Cardona 36' for Malta, Teddy Teuma 81' for Malta. On expected goals it finished 0.76–3.03.