Netherlands vs Germany UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Netherlands 1-1 Germany.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Netherlands, 28% draw, 41% Germany — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Germany at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Netherlands vs Germany
Line-ups
- 1B. VerbruggenG
- 22D. DumfriesD
- 6J. van HeckeD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 15M. van de VenD
- 8R. GravenberchM
- 19Q. TimberM
- 7C. SummervilleM
- 14T. ReijndersM
- 11C. GakpoM
- 9B. BrobbeyF
- 12J. FrimpongD
- 2L. GeertruidaD
- 23M. FlekkenG
- 3J. HatoD
- 20T. KoopmeinersM
- 10N. LangF
- 17M. MeerdinkF
- 13R. RoefsG
- 16G. TilM
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 13P. TreuD
- 4J. TahD
- 15N. SchlotterbeckD
- 18N. BrownD
- 8F. NmechaM
- 6J. KimmichM
- 19K. AdeyemiM
- 11N. AmiriM
- 9K. SchadeM
- 7K. HavertzF
- 22Hennes BehrensD
- 2Y. BisseckD
- 12F. DahmenG
- 23Y. EbnoutalibF
- 5Y. EngelhardtM
- 17C. FührichM
- 20S. GnabryF
- 21A. NübelG
- 3M. RosenfelderD
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 11 |
| 3 | Germany | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Netherlands vs Germany
- 14 October 2024Germany 1–0 NetherlandsUEFA Nations League
- 10 September 2024Netherlands 2–2 GermanyUEFA Nations League
- 26 March 2024Germany 2–1 NetherlandsFriendlies
- 29 March 2022Netherlands 1–1 GermanyFriendlies
- 6 September 2019Germany 2–4 NetherlandsEuro Championship
- 24 March 2019Netherlands 2–3 GermanyEuro Championship
Leading scorers: Netherlands and Germany
Netherlands
GoalsAssists
- T. Reijnders41
Germany
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Netherlands and Germany drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Germany at 41% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Felix Nmecha 32' for Germany, Cody Gakpo 90+2' for Netherlands.