Aris Thessalonikis
vs
Olympiakos Piraeus
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Aris Thessalonikis 0–1 Olympiakos Piraeus
The model makes it 21% Aris Thessalonikis, 28% draw, 51% Olympiakos Piraeus — fair odds of 4.76, 3.57 and 1.96.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Aris Thessalonikis 0.82, Olympiakos Piraeus 1.57.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Olympiakos Piraeus are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Aris Thessalonikis's rating is built from 42 Greek Super League matches and Olympiakos Piraeus's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 541 matches.
Key facts
- Aris Thessalonikis are 5th on 19 points from 10 games; Olympiakos Piraeus are 2nd on 23 points from 10 games — Super League 1.
- Aris Thessalonikis have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Panetolikos.
- Olympiakos Piraeus are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to PAOK.
- Last 6 meetings: Olympiakos Piraeus 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 December 2025, ended Aris Thessalonikis 0–0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus
Has the model earned this number?
Olympiakos Piraeus at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus
Aris Thessalonikis
Super League 1
- W3-0Panetolikos7 November 2026
- L0-3away to Levadiakos1 November 2026
- W3-1Atromitos25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Kifisia18 October 2026
- W3-2Volos NFC11 October 2026
Olympiakos Piraeus
Super League 1
- D1-1PAOK8 November 2026
- W3-2away to Kifisia31 October 2026
- W5-0Kalamata25 October 2026
- W2-0away to Panetolikos18 October 2026
- W1-0Panathinaikos11 October 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Aris Thessalonikis had three goals or more.
- Aris Thessalonikis won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aris Thessalonikis scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olympiakos Piraeus went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Olympiakos Piraeus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Olympiakos Piraeus won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 19 |
| 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus
- 14 December 2025Aris Thessalonikis 0–0 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 1 November 2025Olympiakos Piraeus 2–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 11 January 2025Olympiakos Piraeus 2–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 21 September 2024Aris Thessalonikis 2–1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 24 April 2024Aris Thessalonikis 1–1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 3 April 2024Olympiakos Piraeus 3–0 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus
Aris Thessalonikis
GoalsAssists
- Fabiano40
- C. Kouamé30
- T. Kadewere30
Olympiakos Piraeus
GoalsAssists
- Jota Silva51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aris Thessalonikis a 0.1% chance of the title and Olympiakos Piraeus 14.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olympiakos Piraeus the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.57 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Aris Thessalonikis's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/0.69 for Olympiakos Piraeus.
How the model reaches 51% for Olympiakos Piraeus to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Olympiakos Piraeus to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Aris Thessalonikis's ratings add 11 points and Olympiakos Piraeus's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Both sides at this match's level30%−1
- Aris Thessalonikis's ratings41%+11
- Olympiakos Piraeus's ratings51%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Aris Thessalonikis at home · Olympiakos Piraeus away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Aris ThessalonikisOlympiakos Piraeus
Aris Thessalonikis are 5th after 10 Super League 1 matches (between 2nd and 7th so far); Olympiakos Piraeus are 2nd after 10 (between 1st and 5th). Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Aris Thessalonikis 10, Olympiakos Piraeus 10.
Aris Thessalonikis score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Olympiakos Piraeus have let in 0 there.
Olympiakos Piraeus score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Aris Thessalonikis have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Aris Thessalonikis
- at Panathinaikos6 Dec · Super League 1win 13%
- at Iraklis 190812 Dec · Super League 1win 32%
- vs AEK Athens FC20 Dec · Super League 1win 18%
- vs PAOK10 Jan · Super League 1win 27%
Olympiakos Piraeus
- vs AEK Athens FC5 Dec · Super League 1win 36%
- at Celje10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 47%
- at Atromitos13 Dec · Super League 1win 50%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.