AEK Athens FC
vs
PAOK
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: AEK Athens FC 1–0 PAOK
The model makes it 53% AEK Athens FC, 25% draw, 22% PAOK — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: AEK Athens FC 1.85, PAOK 0.99.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to AEK Athens FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. AEK Athens FC's rating is built from 41 Greek Super League matches and PAOK's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 541 matches.
Key facts
- AEK Athens FC are 3rd on 20 points from 9 games; PAOK are 4th on 19 points from 10 games — Super League 1.
- AEK Athens FC have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Levadiakos.
- PAOK have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Olympiakos Piraeus.
- Last 6 meetings: PAOK 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 28 October 2026, ended PAOK 3–1 AEK Athens FC.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AEK Athens FC vs PAOK
Has the model earned this number?
AEK Athens FC at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AEK Athens FC vs PAOK
AEK Athens FC
Super League 1
- W2-1Levadiakos8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Panathinaikos1 November 2026
- W5-0Panetolikos24 October 2026
- W3-0OFI10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Volos NFC20 September 2026
PAOK
Super League 1
- D1-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus8 November 2026
- W2-1Asteras Tripolis1 November 2026
- L1-2away to OFI25 October 2026
- W2-1Iraklis 190818 October 2026
- L1-3Kalamata12 October 2026
What these results say
- AEK Athens FC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- AEK Athens FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for AEK Athens FC had three goals or more.
- PAOK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- PAOK conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for PAOK.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AEK Athens FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 20 |
| 4 | PAOK | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AEK Athens FC vs PAOK
- 28 October 2026PAOK 3–1 AEK Athens FCCup
- 13 May 2026PAOK 1–1 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 19 April 2026AEK Athens FC 3–0 PAOKSuper League 1
- 15 February 2026PAOK 0–0 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 19 October 2025AEK Athens FC 0–2 PAOKSuper League 1
- 11 May 2025PAOK 1–0 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
Leading scorers: AEK Athens FC and PAOK
AEK Athens FC
GoalsAssists
- B. Varga60
- L. Jović50
- Zini30
PAOK
GoalsAssists
- C. Ndiaye40
- A. Živković35
- D. Pelkas30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AEK Athens FC a 21% chance of the title and PAOK 2.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for AEK Athens FC against 0.99 for PAOK. AEK Athens FC's attack/defence rating is 1.24/0.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/1.01 for PAOK.
How the model reaches 53% for AEK Athens FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AEK Athens FC to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, AEK Athens FC's ratings add 5 points and PAOK's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level42%+1
- AEK Athens FC's ratings47%+5
- PAOK's ratings53%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
AEK Athens FC at home · PAOK away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
AEK Athens FCPAOK
AEK Athens FC are 3rd after 9 Super League 1 matches (between 1st and 5th so far); PAOK are 4th after 10 (between 1st and 5th). Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: AEK Athens FC 9, PAOK 10.
AEK Athens FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); PAOK have let in 1 there.
PAOK score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); AEK Athens FC have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
AEK Athens FC
- at Olympiakos Piraeus5 Dec · Super League 1win 33%
- vs Galatasaray8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 54%
PAOK
- vs Volos NFC6 Dec · Super League 1win 74%
- vs Panathinaikos13 Dec · Super League 1win 33%
- at Asteras Tripolis19 Dec · Super League 1win 55%
- at Aris Thessalonikis10 Jan · Super League 1win 47%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.