Greek Super League predictions & fixtures

Saturday 21 November — 1 match

17:30 UTC Kalamata vs AEK Athens FC — model 16% / 21% / 63%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 6.25 · 4.76 · 1.59. One-sided: AEK Athens FC

Sunday 22 November — 5 matches

14:00 UTC Levadiakos vs Atromitos — model 37% / 30% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.33 · 3.03. Evenly matched
15:00 UTC Panetolikos vs Volos NFC — model 42% / 29% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.45 · 3.45. Evenly matched
15:30 UTC Panathinaikos vs OFI — model 66% / 21% / 13%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.52 · 4.76 · 7.69. One-sided: Panathinaikos
17:00 UTC Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 — model 62% / 25% / 13%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.61 · 4.00 · 7.69. One-sided: Olympiakos Piraeus
17:30 UTC PAOK vs Kifisia — model 62% / 22% / 16%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.61 · 4.55 · 6.25. One-sided: PAOK

Monday 23 November — 1 match

15:00 UTC Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis — model 32% / 29% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.45 · 2.56. Edge: Aris Thessalonikis

Saturday 28 November — 3 matches

15:00 UTC Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis — model 35% / 30% / 35%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.86 · 3.33 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
18:00 UTC Kifisia vs Kalamata — model 45% / 25% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 4.00 · 3.33. Evenly matched
19:00 UTC Iraklis 1908 vs Panetolikos — model 51% / 28% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.96 · 3.57 · 4.76. Edge: Iraklis 1908

Sunday 29 November — 4 matches

15:00 UTC Atromitos vs Panathinaikos — model 20% / 27% / 53%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 5.00 · 3.70 · 1.89. One-sided: Panathinaikos
15:30 UTC OFI vs Levadiakos — model 44% / 29% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.27 · 3.45 · 3.70. Evenly matched
17:00 UTC Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus — model 21% / 28% / 51%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.76 · 3.57 · 1.96. One-sided: Olympiakos Piraeus
19:00 UTC AEK Athens FC vs PAOK — model 53% / 25% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.89 · 4.00 · 4.55. Edge: AEK Athens FC

Last round: the model's hits and misses

7–8 November: the model called the result of 4 of 7 matches. Across all 68 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 57% of results.

Volos NFC 1–3 Kifisia — the model said 33% / 29% / 38%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Aris Thessalonikis 3–0 Panetolikos — the model said 51% / 27% / 22%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
AEK Athens FC 2–1 Levadiakos — the model said 72% / 19% / 9%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
Asteras Tripolis 1–1 Kalamata — the model said 38% / 27% / 35%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Iraklis 1908 1–2 Panathinaikos — the model said 19% / 28% / 53%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
OFI 0–0 Atromitos — the model said 44% / 27% / 29%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Olympiakos Piraeus 1–1 PAOK — the model said 49% / 28% / 23%, most likely 1-0: result missed.

Greek Super League so far

Top of the table

1. Panathinaikos — 27 pts from 10 (9W 0D 1L, goals 22–5)
2. Olympiakos Piraeus — 23 pts from 10 (7W 2D 1L, goals 16–5)
3. AEK Athens FC — 20 pts from 9 (6W 2D 1L, goals 23–6)
4. PAOK — 19 pts from 10 (6W 1D 3L, goals 19–13)
5. Aris Thessalonikis — 19 pts from 10 (6W 1D 3L, goals 16–17)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 113 matches left: Panathinaikos 62%, AEK Athens FC 21%, Olympiakos Piraeus 14.5%.

Leading scorers: B. Varga (AEK Athens FC) 6 goals, A. Tetteh (Panathinaikos) 5 goals, D. Kurminowski (Kalamata) 5 goals.