Volos NFC
vs
Asteras Tripolis
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Volos NFC 1–0 Asteras Tripolis
The model makes it 35% Volos NFC, 30% draw, 35% Asteras Tripolis — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Volos NFC 1.19, Asteras Tripolis 1.21.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Volos NFC's rating is built from 42 Greek Super League matches and Asteras Tripolis's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 541 matches.
Key facts
- Volos NFC are bottom on 0 points from 10 games; Asteras Tripolis are 11th on 7 points from 10 games — Super League 1.
- Volos NFC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Kifisia.
- Asteras Tripolis are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Kalamata.
- Last 6 meetings: Volos NFC 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended Asteras Tripolis 2–0 Volos NFC.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis
Has the model earned this number?
Volos NFC at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis
Volos NFC
Super League 1
- L1-3Kifisia7 November 2026
- L0-3away to Atromitos2 November 2026
- L0-1Panathinaikos25 October 2026
- D0-0away to Levadiakos17 October 2026
- L2-3away to Aris Thessalonikis11 October 2026
Asteras Tripolis
Super League 1
- D1-1Kalamata8 November 2026
- L1-2away to PAOK1 November 2026
- D0-0Levadiakos24 October 2026
- L1-5away to Panathinaikos18 October 2026
- W2-1Atromitos10 October 2026
What these results say
- Volos NFC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Volos NFC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Asteras Tripolis failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Asteras Tripolis scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Asteras Tripolis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Volos NFC | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 0 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Volos NFC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 95% today
Asteras Tripolis
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 54% today
From our Super League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis
- 7 February 2026Asteras Tripolis 2–0 Volos NFCSuper League 1
- 20 September 2025Volos NFC 2–1 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 14 December 2024Volos NFC 2–1 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 25 August 2024Asteras Tripolis 0–1 Volos NFCSuper League 1
- 16 March 2024Asteras Tripolis 0–2 Volos NFCSuper League 1
- 14 January 2024Asteras Tripolis 1–0 Volos NFCSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis
Volos NFC
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Asteras Tripolis
GoalsAssists
- F. Macheda31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Asteras Tripolis (11th, with Volos NFC 14th), while our numbers lean to Volos NFC. Volos NFC rate 0.57 in attack and 1.66 in defence, Asteras Tripolis 0.61 and 1.41 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Volos NFC the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Volos NFC against 1.21 for Asteras Tripolis. Volos NFC's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.41 for Asteras Tripolis.
How the model reaches 35% for Volos NFC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Volos NFC to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Volos NFC's ratings take away 3 points and Asteras Tripolis's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Volos NFC's ratings38%−3
- Asteras Tripolis's ratings35%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Volos NFC at home · Asteras Tripolis away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Volos NFCAsteras Tripolis
Volos NFC are 14th after 10 Super League 1 matches (between 14th and 14th so far); Asteras Tripolis are 11th after 10 (between 10th and 12th). Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Volos NFC 10, Asteras Tripolis 10.
Volos NFC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Asteras Tripolis have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Volos NFC
- at PAOK6 Dec · Super League 1win 9%
- at AEK Athens FC13 Dec · Super League 1win 5%
- vs Levadiakos19 Dec · Super League 1win 30%
- at Iraklis 19089 Jan · Super League 1win 20%
Asteras Tripolis
- vs Kifisia6 Dec · Super League 1win 35%
- at Levadiakos12 Dec · Super League 1win 26%
- vs PAOK19 Dec · Super League 1win 20%
- vs Panathinaikos10 Jan · Super League 1win 15%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.