Arka Gdynia vs Stal Rzeszów Cup prediction & result
Final score: Arka Gdynia 1-2 Stal Rzeszów.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Arka Gdynia, 25% draw, 25% Stal Rzeszów — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Arka Gdynia at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 33J. Grobelny
- 6K. Lipkowski
- 3S. Szota
- 44J. Dominguez
- 94D. Gojny
- 72E. Demirovic
- 23S. Lewkot
- 39M. Milewski
- 14D. Kun
- 11D. Kocyla
- 9V. Gutkovskis
- 30K. Krzepisz
- 4M. Komenda
- 80W. Zacharewicz
- 28M. Ambrosiewicz
- 8A. Sidibe
- 77F. Walus
- 71J. Kowalski
- 16K. Solecki
- 98E. Rama
- 88M. Koziol
- 21M. Thiede
- 3V. Krasovskiy
- 39M. Kaczor
- 77K. Kukulka
- 8S. Goss
- 29M. Listkowski
- 40E. Wisniowski
- 16W. Brzek
- 27M. Rittmuller
- 76S. Salamon
- 1S. Vanivskyi
- 2W. Machura
- 15S. Pukala
- 17O. Madej
- 19M. Musik
- 44A. Buksa
- 66M. Leniart
Form going into Arka Gdynia vs Stal Rzeszów
Arka Gdynia
I Liga
- W3-1Nieciecza24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Lechia Gdansk18 October 2026
- L1-2Polonia Warszawa10 October 2026
Stal Rzeszów
I Liga
- L1-2away to Podbeskidzie25 October 2026
- W4-3away to Pogoń Siedlce18 October 2026
- L1-2Lechia Gdansk12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Arka Gdynia | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 | Stal Rzeszów | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arka Gdynia vs Stal Rzeszów
- 1 August 2026Arka Gdynia 4–0 Stal RzeszówI Liga
- 2 December 2024Arka Gdynia 2–1 Stal RzeszówI Liga
- 22 July 2024Stal Rzeszów 1–0 Arka GdyniaI Liga
- 25 February 2024Arka Gdynia 5–1 Stal RzeszówI Liga
- 13 August 2023Stal Rzeszów 2–3 Arka GdyniaI Liga
- 7 May 2023Stal Rzeszów 2–1 Arka GdyniaI Liga
The result against the call
Stal Rzeszów won 2–1 at Arka Gdynia. The model had leaned towards a win for Arka Gdynia at 50% and given a win for Stal Rzeszów 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Milewski 2' for Arka Gdynia, A. Buksa 77' for Stal Rzeszów, A. Buksa 81' for Stal Rzeszów.
How the call on Arka Gdynia v Stal Rzeszów has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 62% / 22% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 50% / 25% / 25%: the biggest move is Arka Gdynia's chance of winning, down 12 points.
- Arka Gdynia win50%▼ −12
- Draw25%▲ +3
- Stal Rzeszów win25%▲ +9
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.