Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce Cup prediction & result
Final score: Polonia Warszawa 2-1 Korona Kielce.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Polonia Warszawa, 29% draw, 39% Korona Kielce — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Korona Kielce at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1H. Ravas
- 16J. Budnicki
- 20D. Olafsson
- 2M. Kuusk
- 99I. Durmus
- 36T. Makowski
- 27S. Kowalczyk
- 15A. Golos
- 6D. Gnaase
- 9K. Kostorz
- 7D. Vega
- 72A. Sandach
- 8O. Wojciechowski
- 14M. Gorzedowski
- 17R. Dadok
- 23S. Skrabb
- 24E. Terpilowski
- 26K. Tabara
- 63G. Barkovskiy
- 97P. Janasik
- 87R. Mamla
- 23S. Rubezic
- 6M. Pieczek
- 2A. Mosor
- 8M. Remacle
- 30C. Mena
- 35K. Jakubczyk
- 18P. Hellebrand
- 19M. Ameyaw
- 14M. Stepinski
- 71W. Dlugosz
- 1X. Dziekonski
- 7D. Blanik
- 10Nono
- 11K. Matuszewski
- 22M. Fassbender
- 24B. Smolarczyk
- 67N. Barczak
- 86S. Gustafson
- 99D. Bak
Form going into Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce
Polonia Warszawa
I Liga
- D1-1Miedz Legnica23 October 2026
- W1-0away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Arka Gdynia10 October 2026
Korona Kielce
Ekstraklasa
- W1-0GKS Katowice24 October 2026
- L1-6away to Lech Poznan18 October 2026
- L0-2away to Pogon Szczecin11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Polonia Warszawa and Korona Kielce in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Warszawa | I Liga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 25 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 18 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: I Liga · Ekstraklasa
Head-to-head: Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce
- 28 June 2025Korona Kielce 0–0 Polonia WarszawaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Polonia Warszawa and Korona Kielce
Polonia Warszawa
No player in I Liga's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.
Korona Kielce
GoalsAssists
- M. Stępiński60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Polonia Warszawa beat Korona Kielce 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Korona Kielce at 39% and given a win for Polonia Warszawa 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Pieczek (own goal) 27' for Polonia Warszawa, K. Kostorz 48' for Polonia Warszawa, D. Bak 51' for Korona Kielce.
How the call on Polonia Warszawa v Korona Kielce has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 29% / 28% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 32% / 29% / 39%: the biggest move is Korona Kielce's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Polonia Warszawa win32%▲ +3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Korona Kielce win39%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.