Newcastle vs Everton Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Newcastle 0-1 Everton.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Newcastle, 27% draw, 32% Everton — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Newcastle at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Newcastle vs Everton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 21L. HorníčekG
- 37A. DedićD
- 5F. SchärD
- 33D. BurnD
- 3L. HallD
- 7JoelintonM
- 6Nico GonzálezM
- 19A. ElangaM
- 28J. WillockM
- 11H. BarnesM
- 10W. OsulaF
- 17B. TouréF
- 23J. MurphyM
- 9Y. WissaF
- 41J. RamseyM
- 1N. PopeG
- 4S. BotmanD
- 12M. ThiawD
- 8A. BambaM
- 14Sean SteurM
- 1J. PickfordG
- 15J. O'BrienD
- 6J. TarkowskiD
- 4J. BranthwaiteD
- 16V. MykolenkoD
- 45H. ArmstrongM
- 37J. GarnerM
- 34M. RöhlM
- 8K. Dewsbury-HallM
- 19Tyrique GeorgeM
- 11T. BarryF
- 2A. Maitland-NilesM
- 5M. KeaneD
- 20T. DiblingF
- 23C. NørgaardM
- 24C. AlcarazM
- 30H. HackneyM
- 22B. JohnsonF
- 12M. TraversG
- 58B. GrahamF
Form going into Newcastle vs Everton
Newcastle
Premier League
- W2-0away to Crystal Palace25 October 2026
- L0-1Aston Villa17 October 2026
- L1-4away to Coventry12 October 2026
Everton
Premier League
- L0-2away to Arsenal24 October 2026
- L0-2Chelsea17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Hull City11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Everton vs Newcastle
Everton and Newcastle have met 8 times in the records we hold, Everton has won 5 of them to Newcastle's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Everton won the last one 1–0 on 2 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 9 |
| Newcastle | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 13 |
Between them these 8 meetings produced 22 goals, an average of 2.75 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 2 Nov 2026
Premier LeagueNewcastle 0–1 Everton - 29 Oct 2026
League CupEverton 3–1 Newcastle - 12 Aug 2026
Friendlies ClubsNewcastle 1–3 Everton - 28 Feb 2026
Premier LeagueNewcastle 2–3 Everton - 29 Nov 2025
Premier LeagueEverton 1–4 Newcastle - 25 May 2025
Premier LeagueNewcastle 0–1 Everton - 5 Oct 2024
Premier LeagueEverton 0–0 Newcastle - 2 Apr 2024
Premier LeagueNewcastle 1–1 Everton
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Newcastle's attack rates 9% above Everton's, and Everton concede 19% fewer than Newcastle. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Newcastle and Everton
Newcastle
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Everton
GoalsAssists
- T. Barry61
- K. Dewsbury-Hall31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Everton won 1–0 at Newcastle. The model had leaned towards a win for Newcastle at 41% and given a win for Everton 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Thierno Barry 49' for Everton. Sent off: Jacob Ramsey (Newcastle) 90+8'. On expected goals it finished 1.52–2.18.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Newcastle a 12.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.3% after a win, 13.4% after a draw, 15.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.3%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.
For Everton the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 11.2% going in: 6.6% after a win, 12.0% after a draw, 13.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.6%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Newcastle v Everton has moved
First published on 19 Oct at 38% / 27% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 27% / 32%: the biggest move is Newcastle's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Newcastle win41%▲ +3
- Draw27%=
- Everton win32%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.