10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

AS Trencin vs Dukla Banská Bystrica Super Liga prediction & result

Referee: I. Kruzliak
Full time0 – 1

Final score: AS Trencin 0-1 Dukla Banská Bystrica.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% AS Trencin, 26% draw, 27% Dukla Banská Bystrica — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AS Trencin at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AS Trencin0%Draw7%Dukla Banská Bystrica93%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽M. Gjorgievskiassist: N. Kubala
21'
D. Richtarech
49'
N. Kubala
60'
🔁D. Richtarechout: K. Vallo
65'
M. Duris
🔁J. Mulderout: N. Jovanovic
66'
🔁M. Poomout: T. Hajovsky
66'
🔁F. Kasanaout: M. Boye
66'
73'
🔁M. Durisout: V. Toth
73'
🔁E. Arevaloout: E. Okechukwu
74'
E. Okechukwu
🔁P. Gonzalezout: C. Ansah
85'
🔁D. Kamout: D. Jepihhin
85'
85'
🔁J. Povazanecout: A. Hanes
85'
🔁M. Gjorgievskiout: A. Sivicek

Line-ups

AS Trencin
  • 1A. Katic
  • 14R. Sanusi
  • 33R. Krizan
  • 29L. Bessile
  • 13J. Mulder
  • 18M. Poom
  • 10D. Kam
  • 93P. Gonzalez
  • 21L. Mikulaj
  • 7Eynel Soares
  • 5F. Kasana
Substitutes
  • 30M. Slavicek
  • 2N. Jovanovic
  • 25L. Skovajsa
  • 95P. Diouf
  • 8T. Hajovsky
  • 16C. Ansah
  • 22D. Jepihhin
  • 99M. Boye
  • 27F. Slovak
Coach: Ricardo Moniz
Dukla Banská Bystrica
  • 31L. Hrosso
  • 42Maik
  • 23M. Bakala
  • 41L. Willweber
  • 13N. Sikula
  • 7J. Povazanec
  • 6D. Richtarech
  • 29E. Arevalo
  • 28M. Gjorgievski
  • 27N. Kubala
  • 57M. Duris
Substitutes
  • 1J. Trefil
  • 11K. Vallo
  • 14Joao Miranda
  • 24V. Toth
  • 9T. Slebodnik
  • 73A. Hanes
  • 15A. Sivicek
  • 16S. Kostial
  • 25E. Okechukwu
Coach: Daniel Valach

Slovakia Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12AS Trencin142481430-1610
7Dukla Banská Bystrica144281427-1314

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AS Trencin vs Dukla Banská Bystrica

  • 25 April 2025AS Trencin 2–2 Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
  • 29 March 2025Dukla Banská Bystrica 2–3 AS TrencinSuper Liga
  • 23 November 2024Dukla Banská Bystrica 6–1 AS TrencinSuper Liga
  • 17 August 2024AS Trencin 2–2 Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
  • 11 May 2024AS Trencin 2–0 Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
  • 30 March 2024Dukla Banská Bystrica 4–2 AS TrencinSuper Liga

The result against the call

Dukla Banská Bystrica won 1–0 at AS Trencin. The model had leaned towards a win for AS Trencin at 47% and given a win for Dukla Banská Bystrica 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: M. Gjorgievski 11' for Dukla Banská Bystrica. Sent off: N. Kubala (Dukla Banská Bystrica) 49'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave AS Trencin a 61.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 51.3% after a win, 67.6% after a draw, 77.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 77.2%, 15.8 points higher than before the match.

For Dukla Banská Bystrica the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 62.4% going in: 45.8% after a win, 61.1% after a draw, 71.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.8%, 16.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on AS Trencin v Dukla Banská Bystrica has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 47% / 26% / 27%: the biggest move is AS Trencin's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. AS Trencin win47%▲ +4
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Dukla Banská Bystrica win27%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.