Aston Villa vs Arsenal Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Aston Villa, 29% draw, 40% Arsenal — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arsenal at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Zion SuzukiG
- 2Matty CashD
- 3Victor LindelöfD
- 14Pau TorresD
- 22Ian MaatsenD
- 8Boubacar KamaraM
- 6Ross BarkleyM
- 7John McGinnM
- 10Emiliano BuendíaM
- 53George HemmingsM
- 11Nicolas JacksonF
- 47AlyssonF
- 18Tammy AbrahamF
- 29Aaron Wan-BissakaD
- 17Alejandro GarnachoF
- 40Marco BizotG
- 5Tyrone MingsD
- 13Matteo RuggeriD
- 26Lamare BogardeM
- 74Luka LynchF
- 1David RayaG
- 4Ben WhiteD
- 3Cristhian MosqueraD
- 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
- 33Riccardo CalafioriD
- 41Declan RiceM
- 49Myles Lewis-SkellyM
- 7Bukayo SakaM
- 8Martin ØdegaardM
- 17Christos TzolisM
- 29Kai HavertzF
- 10Eberechi EzeM
- 39Bruno GuimarãesM
- 23Mikel MerinoM
- 15Ezri KonsaD
- 36Martín ZubimendiM
- 13Kepa ArrizabalagaG
- 5Piero HincapiéD
- 14Viktor GyökeresF
- 20Noni MaduekeF
Form going into Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Aston Villa
- L0-4away to Brighton23 August 2026
Arsenal
- W3-0Coventry21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Aston Villa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
| 1 | Arsenal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aston Villa vs Arsenal
- 31 August 2026Aston Villa 0–1 ArsenalPremier League
- 30 December 2025Arsenal 4–1 Aston VillaPremier League
- 6 December 2025Aston Villa 2–1 ArsenalPremier League
- 18 January 2025Arsenal 2–2 Aston VillaPremier League
- 24 August 2024Aston Villa 0–2 ArsenalPremier League
- 14 April 2024Arsenal 0–2 Aston VillaPremier League
Leading scorers: Aston Villa and Arsenal
Aston Villa
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Arsenal
- B. Saka3 goals
- M. Ødegaard2 goals
- K. Havertz2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.