Aston Villa vs Arsenal Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Aston Villa, 29% draw, 40% Arsenal — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Arsenal at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Zion SuzukiG
- 2Matty CashD
- 3Victor LindelöfD
- 14Pau TorresD
- 22Ian MaatsenD
- 8Boubacar KamaraM
- 6Ross BarkleyM
- 7John McGinnM
- 10Emiliano BuendíaM
- 53George HemmingsM
- 11Nicolas JacksonF
- 47AlyssonF
- 18Tammy AbrahamF
- 29Aaron Wan-BissakaD
- 17Alejandro GarnachoF
- 40Marco BizotG
- 5Tyrone MingsD
- 13Matteo RuggeriD
- 26Lamare BogardeM
- 74Luka LynchF
- 1David RayaG
- 4Ben WhiteD
- 3Cristhian MosqueraD
- 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
- 33Riccardo CalafioriD
- 41Declan RiceM
- 49Myles Lewis-SkellyM
- 7Bukayo SakaM
- 8Martin ØdegaardM
- 17Christos TzolisM
- 29Kai HavertzF
- 10Eberechi EzeM
- 39Bruno GuimarãesM
- 23Mikel MerinoM
- 15Ezri KonsaD
- 36Martín ZubimendiM
- 13Kepa ArrizabalagaG
- 5Piero HincapiéD
- 14Viktor GyökeresF
- 20Noni MaduekeF
Form going into Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Aston Villa
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Brighton23 August 2026
Arsenal
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Coventry21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 13 |
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aston Villa vs Arsenal
- 30 December 2025Arsenal 4–1 Aston VillaPremier League
- 6 December 2025Aston Villa 2–1 ArsenalPremier League
- 18 January 2025Arsenal 2–2 Aston VillaPremier League
- 24 August 2024Aston Villa 0–2 ArsenalPremier League
- 14 April 2024Arsenal 0–2 Aston VillaPremier League
Leading scorers: Aston Villa and Arsenal
Aston Villa
GoalsAssists
- N. Jackson61
Arsenal
GoalsAssists
- K. Havertz30
- M. Ødegaard30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arsenal won 1–0 at Aston Villa. The model had made a win for Arsenal its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: B. Saka 59' for Arsenal. On expected goals it finished 0.31–1.05.