Fixtures & Predictions
Premier League predictions
20 matches ahead, from 21 November to 29 November, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: Brighton, 64% against Newcastle. 2 are marked Tight game — the two sides within 3 points, where the draw is a real outcome. How the model works.
1 home · X draw · 2 away — fair odds, times in UTC
Saturday 21 November — 7 matches
- 12:30 UTC Manchester City vs Fulham — model 60% / 23% / 17%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.67 · 4.35 · 5.88. One-sided: Manchester City
- 15:00 UTC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest — model 46% / 27% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.17 · 3.70 · 3.70. Evenly matched
- 15:00 UTC Tottenham vs Ipswich — model 43% / 26% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 3.85 · 3.23. Evenly matched
- 15:00 UTC Chelsea vs Leeds — model 42% / 27% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 3.70 · 3.23. Evenly matched
- 15:00 UTC Aston Villa vs Sunderland — model 57% / 23% / 20%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.75 · 4.35 · 5.00. Edge: Aston Villa
- 15:00 UTC Coventry vs Crystal Palace — model 46% / 25% / 29%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 4.00 · 3.45. Evenly matched
- 17:30 UTC Newcastle vs Arsenal — model 17% / 24% / 59%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 5.88 · 4.17 · 1.69. One-sided: Arsenal
Sunday 22 November — 2 matches
Monday 23 November — 1 match
- 20:00 UTC Brentford vs Everton — model 45% / 27% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.22 · 3.70 · 3.57. Evenly matched
Friday 27 November — 1 match
Saturday 28 November — 3 matches
- 15:00 UTC Manchester United vs Brentford — model 42% / 25% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 4.00 · 3.03. Evenly matched
- 15:00 UTC Leeds vs Coventry — model 50% / 27% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.00 · 3.70 · 4.35. Edge: Leeds
- 17:30 UTC Ipswich vs Aston Villa — model 29% / 23% / 48%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.45 · 4.35 · 2.08. Edge: Aston Villa
Sunday 29 November — 6 matches
- 12:00 UTC Everton vs Liverpool — model 28% / 27% / 45%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.57 · 3.70 · 2.22. Edge: Liverpool
- 14:05 UTC Fulham vs Bournemouth — model 32% / 29% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.45 · 2.56. Edge: Bournemouth
- 14:05 UTC Brighton vs Newcastle — model 64% / 21% / 15%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.56 · 4.76 · 6.67. One-sided: Brighton
- 14:05 UTC Crystal Palace vs Hull City — model 29% / 28% / 43%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.45 · 3.57 · 2.33. Edge: Hull City
- 14:05 UTC Sunderland vs Tottenham — model 35% / 30% / 35%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.86 · 3.33 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
- 16:30 UTC Arsenal vs Manchester City — model 47% / 27% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.70 · 3.85. Edge: Arsenal
Last round: the model's hits and misses
6–8 November: the model called the result of 6 of 10 matches, 2 of them to the exact score. Across all 100 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 42% of results.
- Everton 3–1 Coventry — the model said 46% / 27% / 27%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
- Leeds 1–0 Tottenham — the model said 41% / 30% / 29%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
- Arsenal 1–0 Hull City — the model said 64% / 23% / 13%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
- Fulham 1–1 Newcastle — the model said 41% / 28% / 31%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
- Nottingham Forest 3–1 Manchester City — the model said 20% / 25% / 55%, most likely 0-2: result missed.
- Brighton 2–0 Brentford — the model said 52% / 25% / 23%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
- Crystal Palace 1–3 Liverpool — the model said 19% / 23% / 58%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
- Ipswich 1–2 Bournemouth — the model said 33% / 24% / 43%, most likely 1-2: exact scoreline.
- Sunderland 1–0 Chelsea — the model said 29% / 25% / 46%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
- Manchester United 4–4 Aston Villa — the model said 40% / 25% / 35%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Premier League so far
Top of the table
- 1. Arsenal — 27 pts from 10 (9W 0D 1L, goals 15–5)
- 2. Brighton — 22 pts from 10 (7W 1D 2L, goals 26–7)
- 3. Manchester City — 21 pts from 10 (7W 0D 3L, goals 21–13)
- 4. Liverpool — 18 pts from 10 (5W 3D 2L, goals 14–10)
- 5. Chelsea — 16 pts from 10 (5W 1D 4L, goals 19–16)
The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 280 matches left: Arsenal 62.6%, Brighton 16.5%, Manchester City 15.3%.
Leading scorers: E. Haaland (Manchester City) 9 goals, A. Isak (Liverpool) 7 goals, T. Barry (Everton) 6 goals.
Premier League table · Accuracy by competition · Head-to-head records · All competitions