3 October 2026, 21:30 UTC

Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova Serie B prediction & result

Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto
Referee: Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes, Brazil
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Botafogo SP 0-1 Vila Nova.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Botafogo SP, 29% draw, 36% Vila Nova — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vila Nova at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Botafogo SP0%Draw4%Vila Nova96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
Marquinhos Gabriel
45+2'
⚽Jandersonassist: Hayner
61'
🔁Everton Galdinoout: Emerson
🔁José Hugo Sousa dos Santosout: Wesley Santos
68'
🔁Matheus Salesout: Kelvin Giacobe·Alves dos Santos
68'
70'
Hayner
70'
🔁Marquinhos Gabrielout: Higor Meritão
70'
🔁André Luísout: Lincoln
73'
João Pedro Vieira
Leandro Maciel
74'
Ericson da Silva
79'
•Hygor
83'
86'
🔁Jandersonout: Raphael Guimarães de Paula
86'
🔁João Pedro Vieiraout: Willian Prado Camargo
🔁Pedro Henriqueout: Gabriel de Souza Inocencio
87'
🔁Leandro Macielout: Arthur Caíke
87'
🔁Rafael Gavaout: Thiago Henrique Moraes
88'

Match stats — Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova

62%Possession38%
16Shots5
3On target3
12Corners1

Line-ups

Botafogo SP 4-2-3-1
  • 1Victor SouzaG
  • 31Pedro HenriqueD
  • 3EricsonD
  • 4VilarD
  • 6Patrick BreyD
  • 8Everton MorelliM
  • 5L. MacielM
  • 30Zé HugoM
  • 10Rafael GavaM
  • 16Matheus SalesM
  • 9HygorF
Substitutes
  • 27DarlanD
  • 7KelvinF
  • 2JonathanD
  • 29Thiago HenriqueM
  • 23Wesley Pinheiro SantosF
  • 20Yuri Felipe Santos da ConceiçãoM
  • 26Felipe VieiraD
  • 12JordanG
  • 17Guilherme QueirózF
Coach: Cláudio Tencati
Vila Nova 4-2-3-1
  • 1Helton LeiteG
  • 22HaynerD
  • 4Douglas MendesD
  • 3Tiago PagnussatD
  • 6HigorD
  • 5João VieiraM
  • 15DuduM
  • 17Everton GaldinoM
  • 10Marquinhos GabrielM
  • 99JandersonM
  • 7André LuísF
Substitutes
  • 20Nathan CamargoM
  • 9LincolnF
  • 8Willian MaranhãoM
  • 29DalbersonG
  • 31DodôM
  • 11Ryan LimaF
  • 70Emerson UrsoF
  • 21Higor MeritãoM
  • 13Willian FormigaD
Coach: Guto Ferreira

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Botafogo SP38149154541+451
3Vila Nova38199105339+1466

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova

  • 8 June 2026Vila Nova 1–0 Botafogo SPSerie B
  • 25 August 2025Botafogo SP 2–0 Vila NovaSerie B
  • 20 April 2025Vila Nova 2–0 Botafogo SPSerie B
  • 28 September 2024Vila Nova 1–1 Botafogo SPSerie B
  • 16 June 2024Botafogo SP 1–0 Vila NovaSerie B

Leading scorers: Botafogo SP and Vila Nova

Botafogo SP

GoalsAssists

  • Hygor110
  • Everton Morelli104

Vila Nova

GoalsAssists

  • Janderson109
  • André Luís92

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Vila Nova won 1–0 at Botafogo SP. The model had made a win for Vila Nova its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Janderson 45+2' for Vila Nova.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.