3 October 2026, 00:35 UTC

Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife Serie B prediction & result

Estadio Castelão, Fortaleza
Referee: Kleber Ariel Goncalves da Silva
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Fortaleza EC 1-1 Nautico Recife.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Fortaleza EC, 25% draw, 22% Nautico Recife — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fortaleza EC at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fortaleza EC6%Draw91%Nautico Recife3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽Viniciusassist: Luan Sales
Lucas Xavier Gazal
31'
⚽Luiz Fernandoassist: Maílton
43'
45+4'
Samuel
🔁Pedro Henriqueout: Rodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza
45'
51'
Luan Sales
58'
🔁Derek Freitas Ribeiroout: Benjamín Borasi
58'
🔁Samuelout: Luiz Felipe
🔁Nathan Fogaçaout: Rodrigo Oliveira dos Santos
71'
🔁Lucas Sashaout: Juan Camilo Cantillo
71'
71'
🔁Luan Salesout: Reginaldo
🔁Vitor Ferreiraout: Welliton Silva de Azevedo Matheus
76'
85'
🔁Léo Índioout: Wanderson Camelo Viana
85'
🔁Todinhoout: Paulo Sérgio
🔁Luiz Fernandoout: Paulo Baya
85'
90+4'
Wenderson da Silva Costa Ferreira

Match stats — Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife

52%Possession48%
16Shots12
4On target3
7Corners4

Line-ups

Fortaleza EC 4-3-3
  • 1João RicardoG
  • 22MaíltonD
  • 3Lucas GazalD
  • 6T. CardonaD
  • 12Kaio HenriqueD
  • 88Lucas SashaM
  • 5PierreM
  • 32Luiz FernandoM
  • 11VitinhoF
  • 17Nathan FogaçaF
  • 16Pedro HenriqueF
Substitutes
  • 13Maurício Júnior Lima RodriguesD
  • 8RonaldM
  • 29RodrigoM
  • 38LuccaM
  • 75RodriguinhoM
  • 77Paulo BayaF
  • 31WellitonF
  • 25Vinícius SilvestreG
  • 10Lucas CrispimM
Coach: Paulo Autuori
Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
  • 1MurielG
  • 2ArnaldoD
  • 15Léo ÍndioD
  • 3AlbertoD
  • 6RyanD
  • 8WendersonM
  • 41SamuelM
  • 29Júnior TodinhoM
  • 10Jean CarlosM
  • 7ViníciusM
  • 72DerekF
Substitutes
  • 34WandersonD
  • 19Kaua Almeida da CostaF
  • 11Victor AndradeF
  • 24B. BorasiM
  • 5AuremirM
  • 60Luiz PauloD
  • 55G. GuruceagaG
  • 46Gustavo HenriqueD
  • 93Reginaldo LopesD
Coach: Bruno Pivetti

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Fortaleza EC38171474533+1265
15Nautico Recife381210164151-1046

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife

  • 9 June 2026Nautico Recife 0–1 Fortaleza ECSerie B
  • 26 February 2023Fortaleza EC 2–1 Nautico RecifeCopa do Nordeste
  • 26 March 2022Fortaleza EC 2–0 Nautico RecifeCopa do Nordeste
  • 12 February 2022Nautico Recife 2–2 Fortaleza ECCopa do Nordeste
  • 14 March 2020Nautico Recife 0–3 Fortaleza ECCopa do Nordeste

Leading scorers: Fortaleza EC and Nautico Recife

Fortaleza EC

GoalsAssists

  • Maílton103

Nautico Recife

GoalsAssists

  • Vinícius93

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.