Regular Season - 6 · 28 November 2026, 08:40 UTC

Central Coast Mariners vs Auckland FC A-League prediction

Gosford

Our model says: Central Coast Mariners 1–2 Auckland FC

The model makes it 30% Central Coast Mariners, 24% draw, 46% Auckland FC — fair odds of 3.33, 4.17 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Central Coast Mariners 1.47, Auckland FC 1.95.

Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Edge to Auckland FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Central Coast Mariners are 11th on 2 points from 4 games; Auckland FC are 8th on 5 points from 4 games — A-League.
  • Central Coast Mariners have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Sydney FC.
  • Auckland FC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Wellington Phoenix.
  • Last 5 meetings: Auckland FC 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Auckland FC 0–1 Central Coast Mariners.

More A-League predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Central Coast Mariners vs Auckland FC

67%
Both teams to score
66%
Over 2.5 goals
34%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Central Coast Mariners win Draw Auckland FC win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–17%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 0–26%
  6. 1–36%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Central Coast Mariners first; the other scorelines share the remaining 49%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Auckland FC at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Central Coast Mariners vs Auckland FC

Central Coast Mariners

A-League

  • L1-4away to Sydney FC6 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Melbourne Victory1 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Wellington Phoenix25 October 2026
  • D2-2Newcastle Jets17 October 2026

Auckland FC

A-League

  • D0-0Wellington Phoenix7 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Brisbane Roar30 October 2026
  • L2-5away to Western Sydney Wanderers24 October 2026
  • W3-1Melbourne City17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Central Coast Mariners did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Central Coast Mariners conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Central Coast Mariners scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Auckland FC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Auckland FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Auckland FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

A-League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Central Coast Mariners402249-52
8Auckland FC412167-15

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Central Coast Mariners vs Auckland FC

  • 19 April 2026Auckland FC 0–1 Central Coast MarinersA-League
  • 24 January 2026Auckland FC 2–2 Central Coast MarinersA-League
  • 12 December 2025Central Coast Mariners 1–2 Auckland FCA-League
  • 16 March 2025Auckland FC 2–2 Central Coast MarinersA-League
  • 28 December 2024Central Coast Mariners 1–4 Auckland FCA-League

Leading scorers: Central Coast Mariners and Auckland FC

Central Coast Mariners

GoalsAssists

  • O. Lavale30

Auckland FC

GoalsAssists

  • L. Bayliss20

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Central Coast Mariners Auckland FC
0.54 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.61
2.09 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.65
1.47 Model expected goals (this match) 1.95

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Auckland FC the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Central Coast Mariners against 1.95 for Auckland FC. Central Coast Mariners's attack/defence rating is 0.54/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.65 for Auckland FC.

How the model reaches 46% for Auckland FC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Auckland FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Central Coast Mariners's ratings add 5 points and Auckland FC's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 46%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage35%−2
  3. Central Coast Mariners's ratings40%+5
  4. Auckland FC's ratings46%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Central Coast MarinersAuckland FC
4Matches4
0W 2D 2LRecord1W 2D 1L
4 1.0 per gameGoals scored6 1.5 per game
9 2.3 per gameGoals conceded7 1.8 per game
0 of 4Clean sheets1 of 4
1 of 4Failed to score1 of 4
3 of 3Penalties scored–
8 2.0 per gameYellow cards5 1.3 per game
4-4-2 3×Usual shape4-2-3-1 2×

Central Coast Mariners at home · Auckland FC away

1Played2
0W 1D 0LRecord0W 1D 1L
2–2Goals for – against3–6
0 of 1Clean sheets0 of 2

League matches only, A-League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All A-League matches this season: Central Coast Mariners 4, Auckland FC 4.

Central Coast Mariners scored 100112
Auckland FC conceded 002213

Central Coast Mariners score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Auckland FC have let in 3 there.

Auckland FC scored 111101
Central Coast Mariners conceded 002411

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Central Coast Mariners

  • vs Brisbane Roar12 Dec · A-Leaguewin 33%
  • at Macarthur FC21 Dec · A-Leaguewin 32%
  • at Adelaide United27 Dec · A-Leaguewin 32%
  • vs Melbourne City31 Dec · A-Leaguewin 32%

Auckland FC

  • vs Sydney FC12 Dec · A-Leaguewin 36%
  • at Wellington Phoenix19 Dec · A-Leaguewin 33%
  • at Melbourne City27 Dec · A-Leaguewin 37%
  • vs Adelaide United1 Jan · A-Leaguewin 47%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.