Charlotte
vs
Chicago Fire
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Charlotte 2–1 Chicago Fire
The model makes it 50% Charlotte, 23% draw, 27% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.00, 4.35 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Charlotte 2.31, Chicago Fire 1.59.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Charlotte's rating is built from 71 MLS matches and Chicago Fire's from 71, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,572 matches.
Key facts
- Charlotte are 5th on 54 points from 34 games; Chicago Fire are 4th on 55 points from 34 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Charlotte are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Inter Miami.
- Chicago Fire have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to Columbus Crew.
- Last 6 meetings: Chicago Fire 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 September 2026, ended Charlotte 0–1 Chicago Fire.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Charlotte vs Chicago Fire
Has the model earned this number?
Charlotte at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Charlotte vs Chicago Fire
Charlotte
Major League Soccer
- D3-3away to Inter Miami7 November 2026
- W4-0Orlando City SC31 October 2026
- W4-0CF Montreal28 October 2026
- L2-3away to Portland Timbers25 October 2026
- D2-2away to Philadelphia Union17 October 2026
Chicago Fire
Major League Soccer
- L3-4Columbus Crew7 November 2026
- W4-2away to Colorado Rapids1 November 2026
- D2-2Orlando City SC29 October 2026
- W3-2away to Atlanta United FC24 October 2026
- L0-1away to New England Revolution17 October 2026
What these results say
- Charlotte scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Charlotte had three goals or more.
- Chicago Fire conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chicago Fire had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Charlotte | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 66 | 51 | +15 | 54 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 64 | 54 | +10 | 55 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Charlotte vs Chicago Fire
- 26 September 2026Charlotte 0–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 2 August 2026Chicago Fire 2–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 29 June 2025Chicago Fire 3–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 17 May 2025Charlotte 1–4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 2 October 2024Charlotte 4–3 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 16 May 2024Chicago Fire 0–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Charlotte and Chicago Fire
Charlotte
GoalsAssists
- I. Toklomati Giorno155
Chicago Fire
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 64 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charlotte the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Charlotte against 1.59 for Chicago Fire. Charlotte's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.48 for Chicago Fire.
How the model reaches 50% for Charlotte to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Charlotte to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Charlotte's ratings add 2 points and Chicago Fire's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Charlotte's ratings48%+2
- Chicago Fire's ratings50%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Charlotte at home · Chicago Fire away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Charlotte 34, Chicago Fire 34.
Charlotte score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Chicago Fire have let in 12 there.
Chicago Fire score most often in the 61–75 minute window (13 goals); Charlotte have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.