Los Angeles FC
vs
St. Louis City
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Los Angeles FC 2–1 St. Louis City
The model makes it 42% Los Angeles FC, 26% draw, 32% St. Louis City — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Los Angeles FC 1.64, St. Louis City 1.37.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Los Angeles FC's rating is built from 71 MLS matches and St. Louis City's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,572 matches.
Key facts
- Los Angeles FC are 6th on 47 points from 34 games; St. Louis City are 3rd on 54 points from 34 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Los Angeles FC are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Seattle Sounders.
- St. Louis City have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Houston Dynamo.
- Last 6 meetings: Los Angeles FC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 May 2026, ended St. Louis City 2–1 Los Angeles FC.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City
Has the model earned this number?
Los Angeles FC at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City
Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer
- L1-2away to Seattle Sounders8 November 2026
- L1-3Minnesota United FC2 November 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles Galaxy26 October 2026
- D1-1away to New York City FC17 October 2026
- W3-1Austin15 October 2026
St. Louis City
Major League Soccer
- W1-0away to Houston Dynamo8 November 2026
- L0-1San Diego31 October 2026
- L2-3Portland Timbers29 October 2026
- L0-3away to Real Salt Lake25 October 2026
- L2-3away to Minnesota United FC17 October 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Los Angeles FC.
- St. Louis City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 52 | 40 | +12 | 47 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City
- 14 May 2026St. Louis City 2–1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 15 March 2026Los Angeles FC 2–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 28 September 2025St. Louis City 0–3 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 27 April 2025Los Angeles FC 2–2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 3 October 2024Los Angeles FC 1–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 16 May 2024St. Louis City 0–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Los Angeles FC and St. Louis City
Los Angeles FC
GoalsAssists
- D. Bouanga185
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro196
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour St. Louis City (third, with Los Angeles FC sixth), while our numbers lean to Los Angeles FC. Los Angeles FC rate 0.65 in attack and 1.22 in defence, St. Louis City 0.77 and 1.37 (lower is better in defence), so Los Angeles FC have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 7-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Los Angeles FC the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Los Angeles FC against 1.37 for St. Louis City. Los Angeles FC's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.37 for St. Louis City.
How the model reaches 42% for Los Angeles FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Los Angeles FC to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Los Angeles FC's ratings take away 1 point and St. Louis City's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Los Angeles FC's ratings42%−1
- St. Louis City's ratings42%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Los Angeles FC at home · St. Louis City away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Los Angeles FC 34, St. Louis City 34.
St. Louis City score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Los Angeles FC have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.