Club Tijuana vs Atlas Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club Tijuana 2-3 Atlas.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Club Tijuana, 28% draw, 25% Atlas — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Club Tijuana at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club Tijuana vs Atlas
Line-ups
- 2A. RodríguezG
- 17R. ÁrcigaD
- 4Unai BilbaoD
- 6A. GómezD
- 16J. VegaD
- 8I. TonaM
- 7Adonis PreciadoM
- 26A. PerezM
- 15I. RiveroM
- 11F. GonzálezM
- 9MouradF
- 202J. GonzálezF
- 34F. BoyaM
- 13Elias ManoelF
- 19D. AbreuF
- 29S. HernándezG
- 188A. MagallonD
- 197J. OrdunoM
- 33P. OrtízD
- 31Y. PadillaF
- 12C. VargasG
- 6É. ZaldívarD
- 13G. AguirreD
- 44J. PurataD
- 20K. ZenónM
- 18E. MontielM
- 15Paulo RamírezM
- 16M. ValenzuelaM
- 8R. MmaeeM
- 10Luís EstevesM
- 9F. MonzónF
- 22A. SánchezG
- 5J. RodríguezD
- 26A. RochaM
- 27V. RÃosM
- 4A. MoraD
- 203J. MartínF
- 23S. HernándezM
- 58A. GonzálezF
- 218jorge San MartínD
Form going into Club Tijuana vs Atlas
Club Tijuana
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to CF Pachuca21 September 2026
- L0-1Club Queretaro12 September 2026
- W2-0Pumas UNAM29 August 2026
- L2-5away to Guadalajara Chivas22 August 2026
- W2-1Cruz Azul17 August 2026
Atlas
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Pumas UNAM19 September 2026
- L2-5away to Toluca12 September 2026
- D1-1Atlante FC6 September 2026
- L1-3Club Queretaro29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Cruz Azul23 August 2026
What these results say
- Club Tijuana scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Tijuana conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 22 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Tijuana vs Atlas
- 5 March 2026Atlas 2–1 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 8 November 2025Club Tijuana 2–0 AtlasLiga MX
- 10 March 2025Club Tijuana 3–4 AtlasLiga MX
- 25 November 2024Club Tijuana 3–0 AtlasLiga MX
- 27 October 2024Atlas 0–0 Club TijuanaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club Tijuana and Atlas
Club Tijuana
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- F. Monzón51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atlas won 3–2 at Club Tijuana. The model had leaned towards a win for Club Tijuana at 47% and given a win for Atlas 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ryan Mmaee 15' for Atlas, Mourad El Ghezouani (penalty) 21' for Club Tijuana, José Rivero 37' for Club Tijuana, Luís André Leite Esteves (penalty) 87' for Atlas, Florián Monzón 90+1' for Atlas.
How the call on Club Tijuana v Atlas has moved
First published on 12 Sep at 44% / 30% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is Club Tijuana's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Club Tijuana win47%▲ +3
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Atlas win25%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.