Coquimbo Unido
vs
Deportes Limache
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Coquimbo Unido 2–1 Deportes Limache
The model makes it 50% Coquimbo Unido, 25% draw, 25% Deportes Limache — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Coquimbo Unido 1.91, Deportes Limache 1.22.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Coquimbo Unido's rating is built from 56 Chilean Primera División matches and Deportes Limache's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 693 matches.
Key facts
- Coquimbo Unido are 6th on 38 points from 26 games; Deportes Limache are 4th on 40 points from 27 games — Primera División.
- Coquimbo Unido have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Audax Italiano.
- Deportes Limache have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Universidad Catolica.
- Last 6 meetings: Coquimbo Unido 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 July 2026, ended Deportes Limache 1–1 Coquimbo Unido.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache
Has the model earned this number?
Coquimbo Unido at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache
Coquimbo Unido
Primera División
- W1-0away to Audax Italiano8 November 2026
- W1-0Union La Calera30 October 2026
- L1-2away to Nublense25 October 2026
- W5-2Colo Colo11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Cobresal12 September 2026
Deportes Limache
Primera División
- L0-3away to Universidad Catolica8 November 2026
- W2-0Audax Italiano2 November 2026
- W1-0away to Universidad de Concepcion25 October 2026
- D2-2Palestino11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Union La Calera14 September 2026
What these results say
- Coquimbo Unido scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Chile Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Coquimbo Unido | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 35 | +4 | 38 |
| 4 | Deportes Limache | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 48 | 40 | +8 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache
- 1 July 2026Deportes Limache 1–1 Coquimbo UnidoCopa Chile
- 23 June 2026Coquimbo Unido 1–1 Deportes LimacheCopa Chile
- 31 May 2026Deportes Limache 2–3 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División
- 21 January 2026Coquimbo Unido 3–2 Deportes LimacheSuper Cup
- 2 August 2025Coquimbo Unido 2–1 Deportes LimachePrimera División
- 13 July 2025Coquimbo Unido 2–3 Deportes LimacheCopa Chile
Leading scorers: Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache
Coquimbo Unido
GoalsAssists
- N. Johansen90
Deportes Limache
GoalsAssists
- D. Castro147
- G. Sosa80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Deportes Limache (fourth, with Coquimbo Unido sixth), while our numbers lean to Coquimbo Unido. Coquimbo Unido rate 0.72 in attack and 1.41 in defence, Deportes Limache 0.70 and 1.58 (lower is better in defence), so Coquimbo Unido have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Coquimbo Unido the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido against 1.22 for Deportes Limache. Coquimbo Unido's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.58 for Deportes Limache.
How the model reaches 50% for Coquimbo Unido to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Coquimbo Unido to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Coquimbo Unido's ratings add 2 points and Deportes Limache's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage45%+8
- Coquimbo Unido's ratings47%+2
- Deportes Limache's ratings50%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Coquimbo Unido at home · Deportes Limache away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Coquimbo Unido 26, Deportes Limache 27.
Coquimbo Unido score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Deportes Limache have let in 5 there.
Deportes Limache score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Coquimbo Unido have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Coquimbo Unido
- at O'Higgins6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
Deportes Limache
- vs Concepción6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 40%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.