Chilean Primera División predictions & fixtures

Sunday 22 November — 8 matches

21:00 UTC Colo Colo vs Universidad Catolica — model 53% / 22% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.55 · 4.00. Evenly matched
21:00 UTC Palestino vs Union La Calera — model 50% / 28% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.00 · 3.57 · 4.55. Edge: Palestino
21:00 UTC O'Higgins vs Universidad de Chile — model 25% / 26% / 49%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.00 · 3.85 · 2.04. One-sided: Universidad de Chile
21:00 UTC Universidad de Concepcion vs Nublense — model 36% / 29% / 35%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.45 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
21:00 UTC Huachipato vs Concepción — model 33% / 31% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.23 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
21:00 UTC Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina — model 50% / 25% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.00 · 4.00 · 4.00. Evenly matched
21:00 UTC Cobresal vs Audax Italiano — model 44% / 28% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.27 · 3.57 · 3.57. Evenly matched
21:00 UTC Deportes Limache vs Deportes La Serena — model 49% / 25% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.04 · 4.00 · 3.85. Evenly matched

Sunday 29 November — 8 matches

21:00 UTC Colo Colo vs Deportes La Serena — model 63% / 20% / 17%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.59 · 5.00 · 5.88. Edge: Colo Colo
21:00 UTC Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins — model 52% / 25% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.00 · 4.35. Evenly matched
21:00 UTC Union La Calera vs Universidad de Concepcion — model 50% / 28% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.00 · 3.57 · 4.55. Edge: Union La Calera
21:00 UTC Audax Italiano vs Palestino — model 37% / 30% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.33 · 3.03. Evenly matched
21:00 UTC Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache — model 50% / 25% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.00 · 4.00 · 4.00. Evenly matched
21:00 UTC Nublense vs Cobresal — model 42% / 26% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 3.85 · 3.13. Evenly matched
21:00 UTC Universidad Catolica vs Huachipato — model 59% / 23% / 18%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.69 · 4.35 · 5.56. Edge: Universidad Catolica
21:00 UTC Concepción vs Universidad de Chile — model 32% / 30% / 38%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.33 · 2.63. Edge: Universidad de Chile

Last round: the model's hits and misses

7–8 November: the model called the result of 5 of 8 matches, 2 of them to the exact score. Across all 33 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 48% of results.

Deportes La Serena 1–0 Palestino — the model said 41% / 26% / 33%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Everton de Vina 0–2 Concepción — the model said 45% / 28% / 27%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Audax Italiano 0–1 Coquimbo Unido — the model said 37% / 28% / 35%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Universidad Catolica 3–0 Deportes Limache — the model said 49% / 24% / 27%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Nublense 1–2 Colo Colo — the model said 26% / 24% / 50%, most likely 1-2: exact scoreline.
Universidad de Chile 2–1 Cobresal — the model said 69% / 18% / 13%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
Union La Calera 1–0 Huachipato — the model said 40% / 29% / 31%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
Universidad de Concepcion 3–2 O'Higgins — the model said 31% / 30% / 39%, most likely 0-1: result missed.

Chilean Primera División so far

Top of the table

1. Colo Colo — 61 pts from 27 (19W 4D 4L, goals 59–30)
2. Universidad de Chile — 51 pts from 27 (15W 6D 6L, goals 47–22)
3. Universidad Catolica — 49 pts from 27 (15W 4D 8L, goals 56–37)
4. Deportes Limache — 40 pts from 27 (12W 4D 11L, goals 48–40)
5. Everton de Vina — 40 pts from 27 (11W 7D 9L, goals 43–35)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 25 matches left: Colo Colo over 99.9%.

Leading scorers: F. Zampedri (Universidad Catolica) 26 goals, J. Correa (Colo Colo) 18 goals, D. Castro (Deportes Limache) 14 goals.