Audax Italiano
vs
Palestino
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Audax Italiano 1–0 Palestino
The model makes it 37% Audax Italiano, 30% draw, 33% Palestino — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Audax Italiano 1.21, Palestino 1.14.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Audax Italiano are 13th on 30 points from 27 games; Palestino are 7th on 38 points from 27 games — Primera División.
- Audax Italiano are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Coquimbo Unido.
- Palestino have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Deportes La Serena.
- Last 6 meetings: Audax Italiano 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 30 June 2026, ended Audax Italiano 3–2 Palestino.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Audax Italiano vs Palestino
Has the model earned this number?
Audax Italiano at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Audax Italiano vs Palestino
Audax Italiano
Primera División
- L0-1Coquimbo Unido8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Deportes Limache2 November 2026
- D1-1away to Universidad Catolica28 October 2026
- D1-1Huachipato23 October 2026
- W1-0O'Higgins13 September 2026
Palestino
Primera División
- L0-1away to Deportes La Serena7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Concepción2 November 2026
- D1-1Colo Colo25 October 2026
- D2-2away to Deportes Limache11 October 2026
- L2-3Universidad Catolica12 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Audax Italiano had two goals or fewer.
- Audax Italiano failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Audax Italiano conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palestino did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Palestino conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Chile Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 30 |
| 7 | Palestino | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Audax Italiano vs Palestino
- 30 June 2026Audax Italiano 3–2 PalestinoCopa Chile
- 24 June 2026Palestino 1–2 Audax ItalianoCopa Chile
- 1 June 2026Palestino 0–0 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
- 1 August 2025Audax Italiano 1–1 PalestinoPrimera División
- 11 May 2025Audax Italiano 2–2 PalestinoCopa Chile
- 1 March 2025Palestino 0–2 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Audax Italiano and Palestino
Audax Italiano
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Palestino
GoalsAssists
- N. Da Silva82
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Palestino (7th, with Audax Italiano 13th), while our numbers lean to Audax Italiano. Audax Italiano rate 0.51 in attack and 1.44 in defence, Palestino 0.64 and 1.42 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Audax Italiano the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Audax Italiano against 1.14 for Palestino. Audax Italiano's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.42 for Palestino.
How the model reaches 37% for Audax Italiano to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Audax Italiano to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Audax Italiano's ratings take away 4 points and Palestino's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage45%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−2
- Audax Italiano's ratings39%−4
- Palestino's ratings37%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Audax Italiano at home · Palestino away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Audax Italiano 27, Palestino 27.
Audax Italiano score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Palestino have let in 7 there.
Palestino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Audax Italiano have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Audax Italiano
- at Deportes La Serena6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 26%
Palestino
- vs Everton de Vina6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.