Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Cracovia Krakow, 27% draw, 26% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Cracovia Krakow at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13S. MadejskiG
- 25O. KakabadzeD
- 4G. HenrikssonD
- 61B. TraoreD
- 39M. PerkovicD
- 43M. KlichM
- 5B. Selan
- 6A. Al AmmariM
- 14A. HasicF
- 18K. ZahiroleslamF
- 70D. KameriF
- 23H. RavasG
- 77J. ChrapustaG
- 7M. PraszelikM
- 79D. PilaD
- 28V. BurletD
- 92M. SkoczylasM
- 15K. GlikD
- 17M. MinchevF
- 21K. SmiglewskiF
- 77V. CojocaruG
- 28L. WahlqvistD
- 13D. KeramitsisD
- 41A. SzalaiD
- 4Leo BorgesD
- 16P. DziczekM
- 3K. AcostaM
- 21D. ChurlinovM
- 35M. WojciechowskiM
- 18P. MukairuM
- 10F. CuicF
- 33A. PeskovicG
- 83A. HolewinskiG
- 11K. GrosickiM
- 7M. JuwaraF
- 6J. BieganskiM
- 15H. AliD
- 8F. UlvestadM
- 23B. MendyD
- 17J. NsameF
Form going into Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin
Cracovia Krakow
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Lech Poznan25 July 2026
Pogon Szczecin
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Legia Warszawa24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cracovia Krakow | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 12 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin
- 25 April 2026Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 25 October 2025Pogon Szczecin 2–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 14 March 2025Pogon Szczecin 5–2 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 14 September 2024Cracovia Krakow 2–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 30 March 2024Pogon Szczecin 3–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin
Cracovia Krakow
GoalsAssists
- A. Hasić72
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pogon Szczecin won 2–0 at Cracovia Krakow. The model had leaned towards a win for Cracovia Krakow at 47% and given a win for Pogon Szczecin 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Leo Borges 46' for Pogon Szczecin, P. Mukairu 90' for Pogon Szczecin. On expected goals it finished 1.13–0.93.