Ekstraklasa predictions & fixtures

Friday 20 November — 2 matches

17:00 UTC Piast Gliwice vs Korona Kielce — model 51% / 27% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.96 · 3.70 · 4.55. Edge: Piast Gliwice
19:30 UTC Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw — model 54% / 25% / 21%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.85 · 4.00 · 4.76. Edge: Pogon Szczecin

Saturday 21 November — 3 matches

13:45 UTC Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia — model 33% / 29% / 38%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.45 · 2.63. Edge: Jagiellonia
16:30 UTC Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze — model 33% / 32% / 35%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.13 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
19:15 UTC Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow — model 34% / 27% / 39%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.70 · 2.56. Edge: Wisla Krakow

Sunday 22 November — 3 matches

11:15 UTC Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź — model 46% / 25% / 29%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 4.00 · 3.45. Evenly matched
13:45 UTC GKS Katowice vs Lech Poznan — model 31% / 25% / 44%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.23 · 4.00 · 2.27. Edge: Lech Poznan
16:30 UTC Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa — model 28% / 29% / 43%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.57 · 3.45 · 2.33. Edge: Legia Warszawa

Monday 23 November — 1 match

18:00 UTC Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin — model 40% / 25% / 35%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.50 · 4.00 · 2.86. Evenly matched

Friday 27 November — 2 matches

17:00 UTC Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice — model 46% / 24% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 4.17 · 3.33. Evenly matched
19:30 UTC Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock — model 58% / 26% / 16%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.72 · 3.85 · 6.25. One-sided: Gornik Zabrze

Saturday 28 November — 3 matches

13:45 UTC Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin — model 41% / 31% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.23 · 3.57. Evenly matched
16:30 UTC Slask Wroclaw vs GKS Katowice — model 31% / 27% / 42%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.23 · 3.70 · 2.38. Edge: GKS Katowice
19:15 UTC Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin — model 50% / 25% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.00 · 4.00 · 4.00. Evenly matched

Sunday 29 November — 3 matches

13:45 UTC Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin — model 62% / 21% / 17%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.61 · 4.76 · 5.88. Edge: Lech Poznan
16:30 UTC Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków — model 59% / 23% / 18%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.69 · 4.35 · 5.56. Edge: Legia Warszawa
19:15 UTC Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom — model 55% / 24% / 21%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.82 · 4.17 · 4.76. Edge: Jagiellonia

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 5 of 9 matches. Across all 121 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 45% of results.

Motor Lublin 3–2 Wisla Plock — the model said 48% / 27% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Wisla Krakow 2–1 Cracovia Krakow — the model said 52% / 26% / 22%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Korona Kielce 0–2 Radomiak Radom — the model said 48% / 26% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Slask Wroclaw 0–0 Piast Gliwice — the model said 34% / 25% / 41%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Gornik Zabrze 2–1 Wieczysta Kraków — the model said 61% / 23% / 16%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
Widzew Łódź 3–0 Pogon Szczecin — the model said 36% / 30% / 34%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Jagiellonia 1–0 GKS Katowice — the model said 41% / 26% / 33%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Legia Warszawa 2–4 Raków Częstochowa — the model said 56% / 24% / 20%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Lech Poznan 2–2 Zaglebie Lubin — the model said 63% / 22% / 15%, most likely 2-0: result missed.

Ekstraklasa so far

Top of the table

1. Lech Poznan — 32 pts from 13 (10W 2D 1L, goals 34–13)
2. Gornik Zabrze — 31 pts from 14 (9W 4D 1L, goals 23–12)
3. Legia Warszawa — 24 pts from 14 (6W 6D 2L, goals 25–15)
4. Pogon Szczecin — 24 pts from 13 (7W 3D 3L, goals 20–15)
5. Wisla Krakow — 24 pts from 14 (7W 3D 4L, goals 22–19)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 182 matches left: Lech Poznan 77.9%, Gornik Zabrze 16%, Legia Warszawa 1.7%.

Leading scorers: Jordi Sánchez (Pogon Szczecin) 9 goals, I. Shkurin (GKS Katowice) 8 goals, P. Makuch (Raków Częstochowa) 8 goals.