Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Legia Warszawa 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Legia Warszawa, 23% draw, 19% Zaglebie Lubin — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Legia Warszawa at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 89O. HindrichG
- 91K. PiatkowskiD
- 8R. AugustyniakD
- 5R. DezielD
- 4D. SzymanskiM
- 22P. WszolekM
- 53W. UrbanskiM
- 67B. KapustkaM
- 19R. VinagreM
- 29M. RajovicF
- 79L. ZjawinskiF
- 59J. BiendugaG
- 13A. RecaD
- 23M. SevcikM
- 9R. AdamskiF
- 6H. ArreiolM
- 99S. KovacikF
- 20J. ZewlakowF
- 24Z. ArsenicD
- 11K. ChodynaM
- 1J. BuricG
- 16J. CorlukaD
- 5A. LawniczakD
- 25M. NalepaD
- 4D. MichalskiD
- 6D. ColinaD
- 44M. RegulaM
- 26J. KolanM
- 39F. KocabaM
- 37S. KerkM
- 17L. SzaboF
- 95F. NowakG
- 8D. DabrowskiM
- 88M. MlinaricF
- 31I. OrlikowskiD
- 20M. DziewiatowskiM
- 71K. NowogonskiM
- 11A. WozniakM
- 9M. KosidisF
- 18F. SzymczakF
Form going into Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin
Legia Warszawa
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Pogon Szczecin24 July 2026
Zaglebie Lubin
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Piast Gliwice27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 24 |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin
- 17 April 2026Legia Warszawa 1–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 19 October 2025Zaglebie Lubin 3–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 8 December 2024Zaglebie Lubin 0–3 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 20 July 2024Legia Warszawa 2–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 25 May 2024Legia Warszawa 2–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin
Legia Warszawa
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Zaglebie Lubin
GoalsAssists
- M. Reguła50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Legia Warszawa beat Zaglebie Lubin 3–1. The model had made a win for Legia Warszawa its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: F. Kocaba 4' for Zaglebie Lubin, L. Zjawinski 25' for Legia Warszawa, R. Vinagre 72' for Legia Warszawa, R. Adamski 90' for Legia Warszawa. On expected goals it finished 1.70–1.03.