CSKA Moscow
vs
Zenit
Premier League prediction
Our model says: CSKA Moscow 1–2 Zenit
The model makes it 32% CSKA Moscow, 26% draw, 42% Zenit — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: CSKA Moscow 1.39, Zenit 1.68.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Zenit: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. CSKA Moscow's rating is built from 44 Russian Premier League matches and Zenit's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 600 matches.
Key facts
- CSKA Moscow are 5th on 26 points from 14 games; Zenit are top on 31 points from 14 games — Premier League.
- CSKA Moscow have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to FC Krasnodar.
- Zenit are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to FC Rostov.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended Zenit 1–2 CSKA Moscow.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: CSKA Moscow vs Zenit
Has the model earned this number?
Zenit at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into CSKA Moscow vs Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Premier League
- L2-4away to FC Krasnodar7 November 2026
- D0-0away to FC Orenburg1 November 2026
- W2-0Spartak Moscow25 October 2026
- L1-3away to Dynamo18 October 2026
- W3-0Rodina Moskva11 October 2026
Zenit
Premier League
- D2-2FC Rostov8 November 2026
- W3-0away to Krylia Sovetov2 November 2026
- W2-0Dinamo Makhachkala25 October 2026
- W3-2Akhmat18 October 2026
- W3-2away to FC Krasnodar10 October 2026
What these results say
- CSKA Moscow scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zenit went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Zenit scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zenit won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 26 |
| 1 | Zenit | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 15 | +17 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
CSKA Moscow
Chance to finish in the top four · 48% today
Zenit
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 43% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: CSKA Moscow vs Zenit
- 5 September 2026Zenit 1–2 CSKA MoscowPremier League
- 2 May 2026CSKA Moscow 1–3 ZenitPremier League
- 10 February 2026Zenit 2–2 CSKA MoscowFriendlies Clubs
- 3 August 2025Zenit 1–1 CSKA MoscowPremier League
- 14 May 2025CSKA Moscow 2–0 ZenitCup
- 30 April 2025Zenit 2–0 CSKA MoscowCup
Leading scorers: CSKA Moscow and Zenit
CSKA Moscow
GoalsAssists
- I. Oblyakov71
- I. Oleynikov34
- K. Glebov31
Zenit
GoalsAssists
- M. Glushenkov105
- A. Sobolev102
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CSKA Moscow a 3.1% chance of the title and Zenit 42.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zenit the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for CSKA Moscow against 1.68 for Zenit. CSKA Moscow's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.43 for Zenit.
How the model reaches 42% for Zenit to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Zenit to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, CSKA Moscow's ratings add 5 points and Zenit's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- CSKA Moscow's ratings36%+5
- Zenit's ratings42%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
CSKA Moscow at home · Zenit away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: CSKA Moscow 14, Zenit 14.
CSKA Moscow score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Zenit have let in 2 there.
Zenit score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); CSKA Moscow have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
CSKA Moscow
- at Rodina Moskva5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 48%
- vs FC Rostov27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Lokomotiv6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Fakel13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 50%
Zenit
- vs Baltika5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 55%
- vs Fakel27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 74%
- vs FC Orenburg6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 60%
- at Rodina Moskva13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 61%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.